Roma (6th place, 51 points) host Lecce (18th place, 27 points) at the Stadio Olimpico. The Serie A match takes place on March 22, 2026, 6:00 PM. The Giallorossi are fighting for European spots, while Lecce is embroiled in a relegation battle. The mathematical analysis places Roma as clear favorites with a 73% win probability.

Roma's current form across all competitions is DLDLL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss). The last five matches resulted in 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, including two consecutive losses as the latest result. Lecce shows a form of WLLWL, with 2 wins and 3 losses in their last five games. Mathematical data indicates that Roma is currently scoring more frequently (1.8 goals per game) than their season average (1.5 goals per game). Lecce is also currently scoring more frequently (1.2 goals per game) than their season average (0.9 goals per game).

Roma has scored an average of 1.34 goals per game this season and conceded 0.79 goals per game. At home, they were stronger with an average of 1.38 goals scored and 0.56 goals conceded per home game, with 7 clean sheets at their stadium. Lecce scored an average of 0.72 goals per game and conceded 1.34 goals per game. Away, Lecce scored an average of 0.71 goals and conceded 1.43 goals per away game, with 4 clean sheets on the road. The Stadio Olimpico has seen an average of 4.2 total goals per game in the last five matches, with both teams scoring in 80% and over 2.5 goals occurring in 80% of games.

In 5 direct encounters, Roma dominates with 4 wins and 9 goals scored, compared to 0 wins and 2 goals for Lecce. There was one draw between the teams. Roma won the last encounter away with a 2:0 score on January 6, 2026.

For Roma, the following players stand out: Donyell Malen (7 goals, 0 assists), Evan Ndicka (3 goals, 0 assists), and Lorenzo Pellegrini (3 goals, 2 assists). For Lecce, Lameck Banda (3 goals, 3 assists), Nikola Stulic (3 goals, 0 assists), and Omri Gandelman (2 goals, 0 assists) are the most important players in terms of scoring contributions.

Mile Svilar of Roma has made 29 appearances this season, with the team keeping 12 clean sheets overall. Wladimiro Falcone of Lecce has also played in 29 games, with Lecce keeping 8 clean sheets in total.

Roma benefits from a home advantage at the Stadio Olimpico, where they average 1.38 goals scored and concede only 0.56 goals. Lecce's away performance is significantly weaker, with an average of 0.71 goals scored and 1.43 goals conceded. The grass pitch at the Stadio Olimpico has recorded an average of 4.2 goals per match in the last five games, with a high probability of 80% for both teams to score and over 2.5 goals.