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Serie A

Atalanta - Hellas Verona

03/22/2026, 02:00 PM

1 : 0
预期进球
Atalanta
2.3
Total xG
3.4
Hellas Verona
1.1
最可能的比分

2:1

10%

1:1

9%

2:0

9%

3:1

7%

3:0

7%
xG 分解
ATAHV

Atalanta

进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.64倍)
+1.30
排名优势 (第7位 vs 第20位, 相差13位)
+0.14
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.4球)
-0.06
防守不足 (场均失1.3球 vs 联赛平均1.3球)
-0.02
Gianluca Scamacca未进大名单 (8球, 1助攻)
Mario Pašalić替补席 (3球, 4助攻)
Kamaldeen Sulemana替补席 (2球, 2助攻)
Lazar Samardžić替补席 (2球, 2助攻)
13%进球产出缺失 (仅93%可用)
主场表现强势 (场均2球 vs 总体1.6球)

Hellas Verona

防守不足 (场均失2.1球 vs 联赛平均1.2球)
+0.92
排名劣势 (第20位 vs 第7位, 相差13位)
-0.17
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球)
-0.04
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

63%

平局

21%

客胜

16%

进球数

Over 1.5

87%

Under 1.5

13%

Over 2.5

67%

Under 2.5

33%

Over 3.5

45%

Under 3.5

55%

双重机会

主胜或平局

84%

客胜或平局

37%

非平局

79%

双方进球

62%

38%

关键因素
  • Pipeline prediction: The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Atalanta with a 63% probability and 2.31 expected home goals
  • Offensive-defensive matchup: Atalanta's home strength (avg. 1.41 goals) meets Hellas Verona's away weakness (avg. 2.15 goals conceded)
  • Form and head-to-head record: Atalanta is 7th in the table despite recent poor form, Hellas Verona is last, and Atalanta has dominated recent H2H encounters
风险因素
  • Atalanta's goal production is currently stagnating (1.4), compared to their season average (1.6)
  • Hellas Verona's tactical approach results in few shots on target, with only 2.0 shots on target on average
  • Hellas Verona concedes an average of 2.15 goals per away game
概述

Atalanta (7th place, 47 points) hosts Hellas Verona (20th place, 18 points) at the Gewiss Stadium. The Serie A match takes place on March 22, 2026, 3:00 PM. Atalanta is aiming for European spots, while Hellas Verona urgently needs points in the relegation battle.

近期状态

Atalanta's form across all competitions is DDDLL (0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses). Their last five games include a 1-4 loss away to FC Bayern München, a 1-1 draw away to Inter, a 1-6 loss at home to FC Bayern München, a 2-2 draw at home to Udinese, and a 2-2 draw away to Lazio. Hellas Verona shows a form of LLLWL (1 win, 0 draws, 4 losses). Recent results include a 0-2 loss at home to Genoa, a 2-1 win away to Bologna, a 1-2 loss at home to Napoli, a 0-3 loss away to Sassuolo, and a 1-2 loss away to Parma. (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

统计数据

Atalanta averages 1.38 goals scored and 0.93 goals conceded per game this season. At home, they average 1.41 goals scored and 0.76 goals conceded. Hellas Verona averages 0.76 goals scored and 1.76 goals conceded per match. Away from home, Hellas Verona concedes an average of 2.15 goals. Both teams scored in 16 of Atalanta's matches and in 15 of Hellas Verona's matches. The Gewiss Stadium has seen an average of 4.4 goals per game in its last five matches, with both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals being recorded in all five fixtures.

历史交锋

In the last five head-to-head matches, Atalanta secured 3 wins, Hellas Verona 1 win, and there was 1 draw. Atalanta scored 15 goals, while Hellas Verona scored 6 goals. The last encounter on December 6, 2025, ended in a 3-1 victory for Hellas Verona. Atalanta has shown recent dominance in these fixtures.

关键球员

Nikola Krstović is a key player for Atalanta with 8 goals and 4 assists in 25 appearances. Charles De Ketelaere contributed 3 goals and 3 assists in 22 games. Nicola Zalewski was involved in many offensive actions with 2 goals and 4 assists in 25 matches. Not nominated: Gianluca Scamacca (8G/1A), Mario Pašalić (3G/4A), Kamaldeen Sulemana (2G/2A), and Lazar Samardžić (2G/2A). For Hellas Verona, Gift Orban is the most dangerous attacker with 7 goals and 2 assists in 24 appearances. Martin Frese scored 2 goals in 23 games. Rafik Belghali was involved in 2 goals in 17 appearances.

门将

Atalanta's goal is defended by Marco Carnesecchi, who kept 10 clean sheets this season. Hellas Verona's goalkeeper is Lorenzo Montipò, who achieved 5 clean sheets this season.

影响因素

Atalanta benefits from a home advantage, averaging 1.41 goals scored and 0.76 goals conceded at the Gewiss Stadium. The stadium has proven to be high-scoring in its last five matches, with an average of 4.4 goals per game, and both teams scoring as well as over 2.5 goals being recorded in all five fixtures.

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