Serie A
Napoli - AC Milan
04/06/2026, 06:45 PM
预期进球
1.1
2.5
1.4
1:1
14%1:2
9%0:2
8%2:1
7%2:2
5%xG 分解
Napoli
AC Milan
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
28%
平局
30%
客胜
43%
进球数
Over 1.5
74%
Under 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
47%
Under 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
25%
Under 3.5
75%
双重机会
主胜或平局
57%
客胜或平局
72%
非平局
70%
双方进球
是
53%
否
47%
关键因素
- AC Milan is favored by mathematical analysis with a win probability of 43%
- Napoli shows strong current form, while AC Milan's goal production recently dropped from 1.6 to 1.2 goals per game
- AC Milan's active goal threat is slightly lower at 84% due to missing players, compared to Napoli's 88%
风险因素
- Napoli has a more extensive list of absences with 5 injured players
- AC Milan's offensive output has recently decreased, with an average of 1.2 goals per game compared to a season average of 1.6
- The venue has a high BTTS rate of 5/5 in the last 5 home games, which could challenge AC Milan's strong away defense
概述
Napoli (3rd place, 62 points) host AC Milan (2nd place, 63 points) at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona
Serie A match on April 6, 2026, 8:45 PM
This is a top-of-the-table clash with important points at stake in the race for Champions League spots
近期状态
Napoli is in good form with LWWWW in their last five matches across all competitions
This translates to 4 wins and 1 loss
Their last victory was a 1-0 away win against Cagliari
AC Milan's form is LWWLW in their last five matches across all competitions
This corresponds to 3 wins and 2 losses
Their last result was a 3-2 home win against Torino
统计数据
Napoli scores an average of 1.53 goals per game and concedes 1.00 goals
At home, they average 1.56 goals scored and 0.81 goals conceded per home game
Napoli had BTTS (both teams to score) in 16 games and over 2.5 goals in 17 games
AC Milan scores an average of 1.57 goals and concedes only 0.77 goals per game
Away from home, their average is 1.56 goals scored and a strong 0.62 goals conceded per away game
AC Milan had BTTS in 15 games and over 2.5 goals in 13 games
Napoli consistently scores around 1.6 goals per game
AC Milan's goal production has recently stalled at 1.2 goals, compared to their season average of 1.6
历史交锋
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Napoli recorded 2 wins, AC Milan also 2 wins, and there was 1 draw
Napoli scored 7 goals, while AC Milan scored 6 goals
The last encounter on September 28, 2025, ended with a 2-1 away win for AC Milan
The recent head-to-head record is even
关键球员
For Napoli, Scott McTominay (7 goals, 3 assists), Kevin De Bruyne (4 goals, 0 assists), and Frank Anguissa (4 goals, 1 assist) are important midfielders
McTominay shows a slightly declining form trend with 1 goal in his last 5 games, but a high season rating of 7.14
De Bruyne also has a declining form trend with no goals in his last 5 games, but a season rating of 7.16
Anguissa also has a declining form trend with no goals in his last 5 games, with a season rating of 7.10
For AC Milan, Luka Modrić (2 goals, 3 assists), Adrien Rabiot (5 goals, 4 assists), and Christopher Nkunku (5 goals, 3 assists) are significant players
Modrić shows a declining form trend but has the highest season rating in the squad at 7.38
Rabiot has a stable form trend with 1 goal in his last 5 games and a season rating of 7.33
Nkunku has a stable form trend with 1 assist in his last 5 games
门将
Napoli's goalkeeper, Vanja Milinković-Savić, has recorded 10 clean sheets this season and has an average rating of 6.76
AC Milan's goalkeeper, Mike Maignan, has achieved 13 clean sheets this season and has an average rating of 7.11
影响因素
The Stadio Diego Armando Maradona has seen an average of 3.0 total goals per game in the last 5 matches
Both teams scored in 5 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 out of 5 games
Napoli shows a strong offensive record at home with an average of 1.56 goals per game and only 0.81 goals conceded
AC Milan is defensively very stable away from home, conceding only 0.62 goals per game