Serie A
Napoli - Lazio
04/18/2026, 04:00 PM
预期进球
1.3
2.4
1.1
1:1
15%0:0
11%1:0
10%0:1
9%2:1
8%xG 分解
Napoli
Lazio
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
37%
平局
31%
客胜
32%
进球数
Over 1.5
71%
Under 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
43%
Under 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
22%
Under 3.5
78%
双重机会
主胜或平局
68%
客胜或平局
63%
非平局
69%
双方进球
是
51%
否
49%
关键因素
- Prediction Model: The model forecasts a narrow home win for Napoli with a 37% probability and 1.25 expected goals, compared to 32% for Lazio and 1.15 expected goals.
- Home Strength and Form: Napoli holds 2nd place with 66 points and displays strong recent form (W-W-W-W-D). At home, they average 1.53 goals scored and concede only 0.76 goals per game.
- Tactical Playstyle: Napoli is possession-dominant (66% possession) and offensively strong with an average of 5.4 shots on target per game, while Lazio plays a more balanced style.
风险因素
- Close Pipeline Predictions: The model forecasts a 31% probability for a draw and a 32% probability for an away win, indicating a tight contest.
- Lazio's H2H Edge: In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lazio holds a slight advantage with 2 wins compared to Napoli's 1 win.
- Napoli's Injury Concerns: Napoli faces several absences, including R. Lukaku Menama (Muscle Injury), A. Vergara (Foot Injury), and G. Di Lorenzo (Knee Injury).
概述
Napoli (2nd place, 66 points) host Lazio (10th place, 44 points) at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona. The Serie A match takes place on April 18, 2026, 4:00 PM. Napoli is fighting for the top spot, while Lazio aims to close in on European qualification places.
近期状态
Napoli is in good form with a W-W-W-W-D record (4 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses). Their last match was a 1-1 draw away against Parma. Lazio's form is W-W-W-D-L (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss). Their last game was a 0-1 loss away to Fiorentina. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.
统计数据
Napoli averages 1.5 goals scored and 0.97 goals conceded per game. At home, these figures improve to 1.53 goals scored and 0.76 goals conceded. Lazio averages 1.0 goals scored and 0.94 goals conceded. Away from home, Lazio also scores 1.0 goals but concedes 1.2 goals per game. Napoli has 11 clean sheets, Lazio has 14. At the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, an average of 2.6 goals are scored per game, and both teams scored in 4 out of 5 matches.
历史交锋
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Napoli secured 1 win, Lazio 2 wins, and there were 2 draws. Napoli scored 5 goals, while Lazio scored 6 goals. The last encounter on January 4, 2026, ended in a 2-0 victory for Napoli, although Lazio has been more dominant in recent overall matchups.
关键球员
For Napoli, Rasmus Højlund (10 goals, 3 assists) and Scott McTominay (8 goals, 3 assists) are key offensive players. Matteo Politano shows a rising form with 2 goals and 2 assists in the last 5 games. For Lazio, Danilo Cataldi (3 goals, 3 assists) and Kenneth Taylor (3 goals, 1 assist) stand out, with Taylor showing an upward form trend. Matteo Cancellieri also contributed 3 goals and 1 assist.
门将
Vanja Milinković-Savić is in goal for Napoli, while Edoardo Motta starts for Lazio. Napoli has recorded 11 clean sheets this season, while Lazio boasts an impressive 14 clean sheets.
影响因素
Napoli benefits from a home advantage, scoring 1.53 goals and conceding only 0.76 goals per home game. The Stadio Diego Armando Maradona averages 2.6 total goals per match. Both teams scored in 80% of games, and 60% of matches ended with over 2.5 goals.