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Serie A

Udinese - Parma

04/18/2026, 01:00 PM

0 : 1
预期进球
Udinese
1.1
Total xG
1.9
Parma
0.8
最可能的比分

0:0

17%

1:1

15%

1:0

14%

0:1

11%

2:0

8%
xG 分解
UDIPAR

Udinese

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.68倍)
-0.35
状态上升 (1.8 vs 1.2 赛季平均)
+0.15
最近5场中3场零封
-0.15
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.4球)
+0.05
Keinan Davis未进大名单 (10球, 3助攻)
19%进球产出缺失 (仅85%可用)

Parma

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.58倍)
-0.42
最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.6球)
-0.11
状态下滑 (0.8 vs 1 赛季平均)
-0.07
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

38%

平局

35%

客胜

26%

进球数

Over 1.5

58%

Under 1.5

42%

Over 2.5

29%

Under 2.5

71%

Over 3.5

12%

Under 3.5

88%

双重机会

主胜或平局

74%

客胜或平局

62%

非平局

65%

双方进球

39%

61%

关键因素
  • Pipeline Prediction: The model gives Udinese a 39% home win probability or a 35% draw probability
  • Form Advantage: Udinese recorded 2 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 games, while Parma secured no victories
  • Head-to-Head Dominance: Udinese won all 3 previous encounters against Parma
风险因素
  • Parma has averaged only 2.0 shots on target in their last 5 games, indicating low offensive penetration
  • The model predicts a high 35% probability for a draw
  • The probability for over 2.5 goals is only 29% according to the model, suggesting a rather low-scoring game
概述

Udinese (11th place, 43 points) host Parma (14th place, 36 points) at the Dacia Arena in a Serie A match on April 18, 2026, 3:00 PM

The hosts are looking to solidify their position in the top half of the table, while Parma aims to maintain distance from the relegation zone

The mathematical analysis favors Udinese with a home win probability of 39%

近期状态

Udinese recently showed an upward trend in form with DLWDW

In their last five matches, they recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

Their last outing was a 3-0 victory against AC Milan

Parma, on the other hand, is in a difficult phase with DLLDD

They have not secured a win in their last five games, instead achieving 3 draws and suffering 2 losses

Their most recent match ended in a 1-1 draw against Napoli

统计数据

Udinese scores an average of 1.23 goals per home game and concedes 1.46 goals

Parma scores an average of 0.73 goals per away game and concedes 1.2 goals

The Dacia Arena statistics show an average of 1.6 goals per game

Both teams scored in 20% of the last five matches at the stadium

More than 2.5 goals were scored in 40% of the matches

Udinese is currently scoring more frequently (1.8 goals per game) than their season average (1.2 goals per game)

历史交锋

In the 3 direct encounters over recent years, Udinese has dominated this fixture

Udinese won all 3 matches, while Parma recorded no victories

The goal difference stands at 6:2 in favor of Udinese

The last meeting on November 29, 2025, ended in a 2-0 home win for Udinese

关键球员

For Udinese, Nicolò Zaniolo is a key player with 5 goals and 6 assists this season, providing 3 assists in the last 5 games

Jurgen Ekkelenkamp showed good form with 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 matches, totaling 5 goals and 2 assists

Arthur Atta contributed 3 goals and 3 assists this season, with 1 goal in the last 5 matches

On Parma's side, Mateo Pellegrino is the top scorer with 8 season goals and 1 assist, also scoring once in the last 5 games

Adrián Bernabé recorded 3 goals and 1 assist this season, scoring one goal in the last 5 matches

Gabriel Strefezza contributed 1 goal and 1 assist this season, both in the last 5 games

门将

Maduka Okoye, Udinese's goalkeeper, has made 24 appearances this season and achieved 9 clean sheets

His form trend shows a positive development

Zion Suzuki, Parma's goalkeeper, has played in 15 games and recorded 7 clean sheets

影响因素

The Dacia Arena has an average of 1.6 goals per game in the last five matches

Both teams scored in 1 of 5 games

More than 2.5 goals were scored in 2 of 5 games

Udinese scores an average of 1.23 goals at home and concedes 1.46 goals

Parma scores 0.73 goals away and concedes 1.2 goals

The match will be played on a grass pitch

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