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Serie A

Hellas Verona - AC Milan

04/19/2026, 01:00 PM

0 : 1
预期进球
Hellas Verona
0.6
Total xG
1.8
AC Milan
1.2
最可能的比分

0:1

19%

0:0

18%

1:1

13%

0:2

12%

1:0

8%
xG 分解
HVAM

Hellas Verona

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.46倍)
-0.89
防守实力 (场均失2球 vs 联赛平均1.3球)
+0.71
排名劣势 (第19位 vs 第3位, 相差16位)
-0.10
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.6球)
-0.08
状态下滑 (0.6 vs 0.9 赛季平均)
-0.08
Martin Frese替补席 (2球, 0助攻)
Kieron Bowie未进大名单 (2球, 0助攻)
14%进球产出缺失 (仅97%可用)

AC Milan

防守实力 (场均失0.8球 vs 联赛平均1.1球)
-0.32
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球)
-0.22
状态下滑 (0.8 vs 1.5 赛季平均)
-0.22
排名优势 (第3位 vs 第19位, 相差16位)
+0.09
进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.35倍)
-0.06
Alexis Saelemaekers替补席 (2球, 3助攻)
Koni De Winter替补席 (1球, 1助攻)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

16%

平局

34%

客胜

50%

进球数

Over 1.5

55%

Under 1.5

45%

Over 2.5

27%

Under 2.5

73%

Over 3.5

11%

Under 3.5

89%

双重机会

主胜或平局

50%

客胜或平局

84%

非平局

66%

双方进球

33%

67%

关键因素
  • AC Milan's clear dominance in head-to-head matches with 5 wins and a 9:1 goal difference in the last 5 encounters
  • AC Milan's superior league position (3rd place) compared to Hellas Verona (19th place)
  • Hellas Verona's ongoing negative streak of four consecutive losses
风险因素
  • Hellas Verona's low home scoring average of 0.71 goals per game
  • AC Milan's tactical metrics show an average of only 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • Several AC Milan key players such as Luka Modrić and Adrien Rabiot are showing a declining form trend
概述

Hellas Verona (19th place, 18 points) host AC Milan (3rd place, 63 points) at the Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi

Serie A match on April 19, 2026, 3:00 PM

Hellas Verona is deep in a relegation battle, while AC Milan is fighting for a Champions League spot

近期状态

Hellas Verona shows a form of WLLLL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) in all competitions

The team recorded 1 win and 4 losses in their last five games

They recently suffered four consecutive losses

The last defeat was a 1-2 away loss against Torino

AC Milan has a form of WLWLL in all competitions

They achieved 2 wins and 3 losses in their last five matches

The last encounter ended with a 0-3 home loss against Udinese, marking their second consecutive defeat

统计数据

Hellas Verona averages 0.72 goals scored and 1.72 goals conceded per game this season

In home games, these values are 0.71 goals scored and 1.41 goals conceded per game

AC Milan shows a strong season performance with an average of 1.47 goals scored and only 0.84 goals conceded per game

Away from home, Milan's defense is particularly stable with 1.47 goals scored and 0.65 goals conceded per match

At the Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi, the average is 2.0 total goals per game

Both teams scored in 2 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 out of 5 games

历史交锋

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, AC Milan has shown clear dominance

AC Milan won all 5 encounters, while Hellas Verona recorded no wins or draws

The goal difference of 9:1 clearly favors AC Milan

The last meeting on December 28, 2025, ended in a 3-0 victory for AC Milan

关键球员

For Hellas Verona, Roberto Gagliardini (Midfielder, 1 goal, 0 assists, avg rating 6.93) with declining form, Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro (Midfielder, 1 goal, 0 assists, avg rating 6.84) with stable form, and Gift Orban (Attacker, 7 goals, 2 assists, avg rating 6.79) with stable form are key players

For AC Milan, Luka Modrić (Midfielder, 2 goals, 3 assists, avg rating 7.35) with declining form, Adrien Rabiot (Midfielder, 5 goals, 4 assists, avg rating 7.28) with declining form, and Christian Pulisic (Attacker, 8 goals, 3 assists, avg rating 7.18) with declining form are the key players

门将

Hellas Verona is expected to start with Lorenzo Montipò in goal, who achieved 5 clean sheets this season

For AC Milan, Mike Maignan will guard the goal, having recorded 13 clean sheets this season

影响因素

Hellas Verona's home scoring record at the Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi averages 0.71 goals scored and 1.41 goals conceded

AC Milan shows a strong away defense with only 0.65 goals conceded per game

The grass surface of the stadium influences the game

The last 5 games at this stadium averaged 2.0 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 2 instances

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