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Serie A

Roma - Fiorentina

05/04/2026, 06:45 PM

4 : 0
预期进球
Roma
1.6
Total xG
2.5
Fiorentina
0.9
最可能的比分

1:1

13%

2:0

11%

2:1

10%

3:0

6%

1:2

5%
xG 分解
ROMFIO

Roma

进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.22倍)
+0.39
防守实力 (场均失1球 vs 联赛平均1.3球)
-0.32
最近5场中3场零封
-0.15
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.8球)
+0.09
状态上升 (1.8 vs 1.5 赛季平均)
+0.09
排名优势 (第6位 vs 第16位, 相差10位)
+0.08
Lorenzo Pellegrini未进大名单 (4球, 2助攻)
Devyne Rensch替补席 (0球, 4助攻)
Neil El Aynaoui未进大名单 (1球, 2助攻)

Fiorentina

最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球)
-0.19
状态下滑 (1 vs 1.4 赛季平均)
-0.13
排名劣势 (第16位 vs 第6位, 相差10位)
-0.10
Rolando Mandragora替补席 (6球, 3助攻)
Roberto Piccoli未进大名单 (3球, 1助攻)
12%进球产出缺失 (仅89%可用)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

53%

平局

28%

客胜

19%

进球数

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

双重机会

主胜或平局

81%

客胜或平局

47%

非平局

72%

双方进球

49%

51%

关键因素
  • Pipeline analysis: A 53% home win probability and 1.63 predicted home goals favor Roma
  • Roma's home strength: The defense is particularly stable, conceding only 0.53 goals per home game on average
  • Fiorentina's away weakness: The visitors concede an average of 1.56 goals per away game
概述

Roma (6th place, 61 points) host Fiorentina (16th place, 37 points) at the Stadio Olimpico

Serie A match on May 4, 2026, 8:45 PM

Roma aims to solidify their position in the European qualification spots, while Fiorentina seeks to distance themselves further from the relegation zone

近期状态

Roma is in good form with W-L-W-D-W (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss) in their last 5 matches

Their last victory was a 2-0 away win against Bologna

Fiorentina records L-W-W-D-D (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss) from their last 5 matches

They recently had two consecutive draws, including a 0-0 against Sassuolo

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Roma averages 1.41 goals scored per game and concedes 0.85 goals

At home, Roma is particularly strong, scoring an average of 1.42 goals and conceding only 0.53 goals

Fiorentina averages 1.12 goals scored and 1.32 goals conceded per game

Away from home, Fiorentina concedes an average of 1.56 goals

The Stadio Olimpico sees an average of 2.8 total goals per game

Both teams scored in 3 out of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 out of 5 matches

历史交锋

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Roma secured 2 wins, Fiorentina 1 win, and there were 2 draws

Roma scored 7 goals, while Fiorentina scored 9 goals

The last encounter on October 5, 2025, ended with a 2-1 victory for Roma

关键球员

For Roma, Donyell Malen is a key attacker with 11 goals and 1 assist this season, showing stable form in the last 5 games with 4 goals and 1 assist

Matías Soulé contributed 6 goals and 5 assists this season

Defender Mario Hermoso scored 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games and is in stable form

For Fiorentina, Albert Gudmundsson is important with 5 goals and 4 assists this season

Jack Harrison recorded 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games, showing stable form

Robin Gosens scored 1 goal in the last 5 games

Lineup check: 100% of Roma's usual starting XI strength is available

Not nominated for Roma: Lorenzo Pellegrini (4G/2A), Devyne Rensch (0G/4A), Neil El Aynaoui (1G/2A)

Lineup check: 89% of Fiorentina's usual starting XI strength is available

Not nominated for Fiorentina: Rolando Mandragora (6G/3A), Roberto Piccoli (3G/1A)

门将

Roma's goalkeeper Mile Svilar kept 15 clean sheets this season

Fiorentina's goalkeeper David de Gea recorded 8 clean sheets

影响因素

The Stadio Olimpico is known for an average of 2.8 goals per game

Roma benefits from a home advantage, conceding only 0.53 goals in their own stadium

Fiorentina shows a more vulnerable defense away from home, with an average of 1.56 goals conceded per game

The match will be played on a grass surface

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