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Serie A

Sassuolo - AC Milan

05/03/2026, 01:00 PM

2 : 0
预期进球
Sassuolo
0.8
Total xG
2.4
AC Milan
1.6
最可能的比分

0:1

13%

1:1

13%

0:2

12%

0:0

11%

1:2

9%
xG 分解
SASAM

Sassuolo

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.79倍)
-0.60
防守不足 (场均失1.4球 vs 联赛平均1.3球)
+0.10
状态上升 (1.5 vs 1.2 赛季平均)
+0.08
排名劣势 (第11位 vs 第3位, 相差8位)
-0.07
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
-0.01
Andrea Pinamonti替补席 (8球, 3助攻)
Cristian Volpato替补席 (2球, 4助攻)

AC Milan

防守实力 (场均失0.8球 vs 联赛平均1.1球)
-0.33
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球)
-0.21
状态下滑 (1 vs 1.5 赛季平均)
-0.15
排名优势 (第3位 vs 第11位, 相差8位)
+0.06
Christian Pulisic替补席 (8球, 3助攻)
Luka Modrić未进大名单 (2球, 3助攻)
Davide Bartesaghi替补席 (2球, 0助攻)
Koni De Winter未进大名单 (1球, 1助攻)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

17%

平局

28%

客胜

55%

进球数

Over 1.5

70%

Under 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

双重机会

主胜或平局

45%

客胜或平局

83%

非平局

72%

双方进球

45%

55%

关键因素
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of only 17% for Sassuolo and an away win probability of 55% for AC Milan
  • AC Milan demonstrates a strong away defense, conceding an average of 0.61 goals per game
  • AC Milan dominated recent head-to-head matches with 2 wins and 2 draws in 4 encounters
风险因素
  • AC Milan's goal production has recently stalled (1.0 goals), with a season average of 1.5
  • Sassuolo is currently scoring more frequently (1.5 goals) than their season average (1.2 goals)
  • Both teams averaged 2.8 shots on target in their last 5 games
概述

Sassuolo (11th place, 46 points) host AC Milan (3rd place, 67 points) at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore

Serie A match on May 3, 2026, 3:00 PM

AC Milan are favorites for this encounter and aim to solidify their position in the top half of the table

近期状态

Sassuolo's form in their last five matches across all competitions is DWLWD

This includes 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

Their last match ended in a draw

AC Milan's form in their last five matches is DLLWD

This means 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

AC Milan also drew their last game

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Sassuolo averages 1.21 goals scored and 1.29 goals conceded per game this season

At home, they average 1.24 goals scored and 1.35 goals conceded

AC Milan averages 1.41 goals scored and 0.79 goals conceded per match

Away from home, their average is 1.44 goals scored and only 0.61 goals conceded

Sassuolo achieved 7 clean sheets this season, while AC Milan recorded 15 clean sheets

The MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore averages 2.6 goals per game

Both teams scored in 3 of 5 games, and 4 of 5 games had over 2.5 goals

历史交锋

In four head-to-head matches, Sassuolo have zero wins, AC Milan won two games, and two matches ended in a draw

AC Milan scored a total of 12 goals, while Sassuolo scored 6

The last encounter on December 14, 2025, ended in a 2-2 draw

关键球员

For Sassuolo, Domenico Berardi (7 goals, 4 assists) and Ismaël Koné (6 goals, 0 assists) are important attacking forces

Armand Laurienté contributed 5 goals and 8 assists

For AC Milan, Rafael Leão (9 goals, 3 assists) and Adrien Rabiot (6 goals, 4 assists) are crucial players

Christopher Nkunku is another important attacking option with 5 goals and 3 assists

门将

Sassuolo is expected to start with Stefano Turati in goal, who recorded 3 clean sheets this season

AC Milan will have Mike Maignan in goal, who has an impressive 15 clean sheets

影响因素

Sassuolo's home statistics show an average of 1.24 goals scored and 1.35 goals conceded

AC Milan, however, is strong away from home, conceding only 0.61 goals per game

The MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore averages 2.6 goals per game

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