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Serie A

Atalanta - Genoa

05/02/2026, 06:45 PM

0 : 0
预期进球
Atalanta
2.1
Total xG
3.3
Genoa
1.2
最可能的比分

1:1

10%

2:1

10%

2:0

8%

3:1

7%

3:0

6%
xG 分解
ATAGEN

Atalanta

进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.6倍)
+1.08
排名优势 (第7位 vs 第14位, 相差7位)
+0.07
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.4球)
-0.04
Lorenzo Bernasconi未进大名单 (0球, 3助攻)
主场表现强势 (场均1.9球 vs 总体1.6球)

Genoa

最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球)
-0.18
状态下滑 (0.8 vs 1.4 赛季平均)
-0.18
排名劣势 (第14位 vs 第7位, 相差7位)
-0.09
Ruslan Malinovskyi替补席 (6球, 3助攻)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

58%

平局

23%

客胜

19%

进球数

Over 1.5

85%

Under 1.5

15%

Over 2.5

64%

Under 2.5

36%

Over 3.5

42%

Under 3.5

58%

双重机会

主胜或平局

81%

客胜或平局

42%

非平局

77%

双方进球

62%

38%

关键因素
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 58% probability
  • Atalanta has won all 5 head-to-head matches against Genoa with a goal difference of 17:4
  • Atalanta's home strength with an average of 1.39 goals scored and 0.78 goals conceded meets Genoa's away weakness with 1.5 goals conceded
风险因素
  • Atalanta shows mixed form with only 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last 5 matches
  • Genoa's goal production has recently stalled, averaging 0.8 goals per game according to Advanced Stats
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a 62% probability for both teams to score
概述

Atalanta (7th place, 54 points) host Genoa (14th place, 39 points) at the Gewiss Stadium. The Serie A match takes place on May 2, 2026, 8:45 PM. Atalanta is fighting for European qualification spots, while Genoa is positioned in the mid-table.

近期状态

Atalanta's form in the last five matches across all competitions is WLDDL (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses). Their last result was a 2-3 loss against Cagliari. Genoa's form in their last five games is LLWWL (2 wins, 3 losses). Genoa most recently lost 0-2 to Como.

统计数据

Atalanta averages 1.36 goals scored and 0.88 goals conceded per game. At home, their average is 1.39 goals scored and 0.78 goals conceded. Genoa averages 1.18 goals scored and 1.41 goals conceded per game. Away from home, their average is 1.19 goals scored and 1.5 goals conceded. Atalanta kept 12 clean sheets, while Genoa had 7. At the Gewiss Stadium, the last 5 matches saw an average of 3.0 total goals per game, with both teams scoring in 3 out of 5 matches and over 2.5 goals occurring in 2 out of 5 matches.

历史交锋

In the previous 5 head-to-head matches, Atalanta dominated with 5 wins. Genoa has not won any of these encounters. The goal difference of 17:4 is clearly in favor of Atalanta. The last meeting on December 21, 2025, ended in a 1-0 victory for Atalanta.

关键球员

For Atalanta, Nikola Krstović with 10 season goals and 4 assists, and Gianluca Scamacca with 8 goals and 1 assist are key attacking players. Charles De Ketelaere contributed 3 goals and 5 assists. For Genoa, Lorenzo Colombo with 7 goals and 1 assist, Leo Østigård with 5 goals and 1 assist, and Vitinha with 5 goals and 1 assist are the leading scorers. Ruslan Malinovskyi (6 goals, 3 assists) is not nominated and missing for Genoa.

门将

Marco Carnesecchi of Atalanta played 33 season games and recorded 12 clean sheets for his team. Justin Bijlow was in goal for Genoa in 13 season games and was involved in 7 clean sheets for his team.

影响因素

Atalanta shows solid performance at home with an average of 1.39 goals scored and 0.78 goals conceded. Genoa concedes an average of 1.5 goals per away game. At the Gewiss Stadium, the last 5 matches averaged 3.0 total goals per game, with both teams scoring in 3 out of 5 matches.

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