Serie A
AC Milan - Atalanta
05/10/2026, 06:45 PM
预期进球
1.5
2.9
1.4
1:1
13%2:1
9%1:2
8%2:0
6%2:2
6%xG 分解
AC Milan
Atalanta
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
39%
平局
27%
客胜
33%
进球数
Over 1.5
81%
Under 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
56%
Under 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
34%
Under 3.5
66%
双重机会
主胜或平局
67%
客胜或平局
61%
非平局
73%
双方进球
是
61%
否
39%
关键因素
- AC Milan's recent attacking struggles (avg 0.3 goals per game, avg 1.8 shots on target) could impact the match
- Atalanta showed historical dominance in the last five head-to-head matches with 3 wins and 2 draws
- Atalanta's tactical metrics show more offensive presence with an average of 4.8 shots on target and 60% possession compared to Milan (avg 1.8 shots on target, 50% possession)
风险因素
- AC Milan averaged only 1.8 shots on target in their last 5 matches
- Both teams show a negative form trend in goal production according to Advanced Stats
- The pipeline calculates a draw with a 27% probability, indicating a less certain outcome
概述
AC Milan (4th place, 67 points) host Atalanta (7th place, 55 points) at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza. This Serie A match takes place on May 10, 2026, 8:45 PM. Both teams are fighting for European spots, with Milan aiming to defend a direct Champions League qualification place and Atalanta still striving for international ranks. The mathematical analysis gives a slight favorite role to the home team with 39%.
近期状态
AC Milan's form in the last five matches is L-L-W-D-L (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses). Their last result was a loss against Sassuolo. Atalanta's form in their last five matches is L-D-D-L-D (0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses). They most recently drew against Genoa. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.
统计数据
AC Milan averages 1.37 goals scored and 0.83 goals conceded per game this season. At home, they average 1.38 goals scored and 1.0 goals conceded. They achieved 15 clean sheets, 15 games with both teams scoring, and 14 games with over 2.5 goals. Atalanta averages 1.34 goals scored and 0.91 goals conceded per game. Away from home, they average 1.38 goals scored and 1.12 goals conceded. They have 13 clean sheets, 18 games with both teams scoring, and 13 games with over 2.5 goals. The Stadio Giuseppe Meazza has seen an average of 2.6 goals per game in the last 5 matches, with both teams scoring in 1 out of 5 games and over 2.5 goals in 3 out of 5 games.
历史交锋
In the last five direct encounters between these teams, AC Milan recorded 0 wins, Atalanta secured 3 wins, and there were 2 draws. Atalanta scored a total of 7 goals, while AC Milan managed 4 goals. The last meeting on October 28, 2025, ended in a 1-1 draw. Recent history shows a dominance of the away team.
关键球员
AC Milan's offense is led by Rafael Leão with 9 goals and 3 assists. Adrien Rabiot contributes 6 goals and 4 assists in midfield. Alexis Saelemaekers has 2 goals and 3 assists. For Atalanta, Nikola Krstović is the top scorer with 10 goals and 4 assists. Charles De Ketelaere adds 3 goals and 5 assists, and Giorgio Scalvini has 3 goals and 1 assist.
门将
For AC Milan, Mike Maignan is in goal, keeping 15 clean sheets in 34 season appearances. Marco Carnesecchi guards Atalanta's goal, with 13 clean sheets in 35 matches.
影响因素
AC Milan averages 1.38 home goals scored and 1.0 home goals conceded. Atalanta averages 1.38 away goals scored and 1.12 away goals conceded. The Stadio Giuseppe Meazza has recorded an average of 2.6 goals per game in the last 5 matches, with both teams scoring in 1 out of 5 games and over 2.5 goals in 3 out of 5 games.