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Serie A

Parma - Roma

05/10/2026, 04:00 PM

2 : 3
预期进球
Parma
0.9
Total xG
2.0
Roma
1.1
最可能的比分

1:1

15%

0:0

15%

0:1

13%

1:0

10%

0:2

8%
xG 分解
PARROM

Parma

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.61倍)
-0.38
排名劣势 (第13位 vs 第6位, 相差7位)
-0.07
最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球)
-0.04
Mateo Pellegrino替补席 (8球, 1助攻)
Adrián Bernabé未进大名单 (3球, 1助攻)
45%进球产出缺失 (仅66%可用)

Roma

最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均2.4球)
+0.26
状态上升 (2.4 vs 1.5 赛季平均)
+0.26
最近5场中3场零封
-0.15
排名优势 (第6位 vs 第13位, 相差7位)
+0.04
Niccolò Pisilli替补席 (2球, 3助攻)
Devyne Rensch替补席 (0球, 4助攻)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

28%

平局

34%

客胜

38%

进球数

Over 1.5

62%

Under 1.5

38%

Over 2.5

33%

Under 2.5

67%

Over 3.5

15%

Under 3.5

85%

双重机会

主胜或平局

62%

客胜或平局

72%

非平局

66%

双方进球

42%

58%

关键因素
  • Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis indicates a 38% away win probability for Roma
  • Form Trend: Roma shows a positive form development with recently 2.4 goals per game, while Parma stagnates at 0.8 goals
  • Head-to-Head: Roma dominated the history with 3 wins and a goal difference of 8:1
风险因素
  • Parma's offensive power is impaired with only 67% of the usual starting eleven strength available, as Mateo Pellegrino (8G/1A) and Adrián Bernabé (3G/1A) are missing
  • Parma averaged only 2.4 shots on target in their last 5 games, indicating few attempts on goal
  • Parma scored an average of only 0.72 goals per home game
概述

Parma (13th place, 42 points) will host Roma (6th place, 64 points) at the Stadio Ennio Tardini. The Serie A match is scheduled for May 10, 2026, at 6:00 PM. Parma is in the mid-table, while Roma is contending for a European competition spot

近期状态

Parma's form in the last five matches is DDWWL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss). During this period, they achieved 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss. Roma comes into the match with a form of LWDWW, which translates to 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last five games. Parma suffered a loss in their most recent outing, while Roma is on a positive run with two consecutive wins. According to advanced stats, Parma's recent goal production (0.8 goals per game) shows a negative trend compared to their season average (0.9 goals per game). Roma, on the other hand, is scoring more frequently recently (2.4 goals per game) than their season average (1.5 goals per game)

统计数据

Parma has scored an average of 0.71 goals per game this season and conceded 1.2 goals per game. At home, Parma scored an average of 0.72 goals and conceded 1.22 goals per home game. Roma shows stronger offensive performance with an average of 1.49 goals per game and a solid defense, conceding only 0.83 goals per game. Away from home, Roma scores an average of 1.5 goals and concedes 1.36 goals per away game. Parma kept 12 clean sheets, while Roma achieved 16 clean sheets. At the Stadio Ennio Tardini, an average of 2.0 goals per game were scored in the last 5 matches. Both teams scored in 3 of 5 games, and only 1 of 5 games had over 2.5 goals

历史交锋

In the direct encounters between the two teams, there have been 3 matches. Roma won all 3 of these matches, while Parma recorded no wins and no draws. Parma scored 1 goal in these games, while Roma was clearly superior with 8 goals. The last encounter on October 29, 2025, ended in a 1:2 away victory for Roma. Roma has dominated the recent head-to-head fixtures

关键球员

For Parma, Gabriel Strefezza has been active in 5 of the last 5 games with 1 goal and 1 assist. Nesta Elphege scored 2 goals and 1 assist in 4 games. Enrico Delprato contributed to 1 goal in 5 games. For Roma, Donyell Malen is in top form in the last 5 games with 4 goals and 2 assists. Mario Hermoso contributed 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games. Gianluca Mancini scored 2 goals in the last 5 matches

门将

Parma's goalkeeper, Zion Suzuki, played 18 season games. Roma's goalkeeper Mile Svilar played 35 season games and contributed to 16 clean sheets. Parma collectively achieved 12 clean sheets this season

影响因素

Parma has scored an average of 0.72 goals and conceded 1.22 goals in home matches. The Stadio Ennio Tardini has seen an average of 2.0 goals per game in the last 5 matches. Both teams scored in 3 of 5 games, and only 1 of 5 games finished with over 2.5 goals

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