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Serie A

Sassuolo - Lecce

05/17/2026, 06:45 PM

2 : 3
预期进球
Sassuolo
1.3
Total xG
2.2
Lecce
0.9
最可能的比分

1:1

15%

1:0

13%

0:0

12%

2:0

9%

2:1

9%
xG 分解
SASLEC

Sassuolo

防守不足 (场均失1.4球 vs 联赛平均1.3球)
+0.08
排名优势 (第11位 vs 第17位, 相差6位)
+0.04
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
-0.01
Andrea Pinamonti替补席 (8球, 3助攻)
Cristian Volpato未进大名单 (2球, 4助攻)

Lecce

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.64倍)
-0.22
排名劣势 (第17位 vs 第11位, 相差6位)
-0.06
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.6球)
-0.06
M. Berisha未进大名单 (2球, 3助攻)
12%进球产出缺失 (仅87%可用)
客场表现不佳 (场均0.6球 vs 总体0.8球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

45%

平局

31%

客胜

24%

进球数

Over 1.5

67%

Under 1.5

33%

Over 2.5

39%

Under 2.5

61%

Over 3.5

19%

Under 3.5

81%

双重机会

主胜或平局

76%

客胜或平局

55%

非平局

69%

双方进球

45%

55%

关键因素
  • Prediction Advantage: The mathematical analysis indicates a 45% win probability for Sassuolo and predicts 1.33 expected home goals
  • Sassuolo's Current Form: Sassuolo is currently scoring more frequently (avg 1.5 goals) than their season average (avg 1.3 goals) and shows a positive form trend
  • Lecce's Away Weakness: Lecce recorded an average of only 2.8 shots on target in their last 5 games and scores an average of 0.67 goals away from home
风险因素
  • Injury Concerns for Sassuolo: Sassuolo are missing key players such as S. Walukiewicz (Leg Injury) and F. Candé (Cruciate Ligament Tear) in defense
  • Lecce's Low Goal Threat: Lecce recorded an average of only 2.8 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • Potentially Low-Scoring Match: The model predicts a 45% probability of both teams scoring and a 39% probability for over 2.5 goals
概述

Sassuolo (11th place, 49 points) host Lecce (17th place, 32 points) at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore. The Serie A match takes place on May 17, 2026, 8:45 PM. Sassuolo is in the mid-table, while Lecce is fighting against relegation.

近期状态

Sassuolo's form in the last five games is LWDWL. This corresponds to 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. Lecce's form in the last five games is LDDWL, with 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses.

统计数据

Sassuolo averages 1.22 goals scored and 1.28 goals conceded per season. At home, the average is 1.21 goals scored and 1.21 goals conceded. Lecce averages 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 goals conceded per game. Away, Lecce also averages 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 goals conceded per game. Sassuolo kept 8 clean sheets this season, Lecce 9. Sassuolo's home games averaged 2.4 total goals. Both teams scored in 60% of games, and over 2.5 goals occurred in 60% of cases.

历史交锋

In the 4 head-to-head matches so far, Sassuolo won 1 and Lecce won 1, with 2 draws. The goal difference is 3:4 in favor of Lecce. The last encounter on October 18, 2025, ended in a 0:0 draw. Recent matches have been even.

关键球员

For Sassuolo, Armand Laurienté (6 goals, 9 assists), Domenico Berardi (8 goals, 4 assists), and Kristian Thorstvedt (4 goals, 4 assists) stand out. Laurienté shows a positive form trend with a rating improvement of 0.44. Andrea Pinamonti (8 goals/3 assists) and Cristian Volpato (2 goals/4 assists) are not nominated. For Lecce, Lameck Banda (4 goals, 3 assists), Lassana Coulibaly (3 goals, 1 assist), and Tiago Gabriel (2 goals) are the key players. Walid Cheddira shows a rising form trend with a rating improvement of 0.20.

门将

For Sassuolo, Stefano Turati is in goal, with an average rating of 6.99 in 4 season appearances. Sassuolo recorded 8 clean sheets this season. For Lecce, Wladimiro Falcone guards the goal with 36 appearances and an average rating of 6.84. Lecce kept 9 clean sheets this season.

影响因素

MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore saw an average of 2.4 goals per game in the last 5 matches. In 3 out of 5 home games, both teams scored, and in 3 out of 5 games, there were over 2.5 goals. Sassuolo scores an average of 1.21 goals and concedes 1.21 goals at their home stadium. Lecce scores an average of 0.67 goals and concedes 1.33 goals away from home.

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