Serie A
Juventus - Fiorentina
05/17/2026, 10:00 AM
预期进球
2.2
2.9
0.7
2:0
13%1:1
10%3:0
10%2:1
9%3:1
7%xG 分解
Juventus
Fiorentina
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
70%
平局
21%
客胜
10%
进球数
Over 1.5
79%
Under 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
54%
Under 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
32%
Under 3.5
68%
双重机会
主胜或平局
90%
客胜或平局
30%
非平局
79%
双方进球
是
46%
否
54%
关键因素
- The mathematical analysis predicts a high home win probability of 70% for Juventus
- Juventus is unbeaten in their last 5 games, showing strong form
- Juventus' home advantage is evident with an average of 1.67 goals scored and only 0.67 goals conceded per home game
风险因素
- Fiorentina is missing key players Rolando Mandragora (6G/3A), Albert Gudmundsson (5G/4A), and Jack Harrison (1G/3A), leaving only 69% of the usual starting XI's goal threat available
- Juventus' goal production has recently stalled at an average of 1.3 goals, compared to their season average of 1.8 goals
- Fiorentina averaged 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
概述
Juventus (3rd place, 68 points) host Fiorentina (15th place, 38 points) at the Juventus Stadium
Serie A match on May 17, 2026, 12:00 PM
Juventus is fighting for a Champions League spot, while Fiorentina is in the mid-table
The mathematical analysis sees Juventus as clear favorites with a 70% home win probability
近期状态
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Juventus is unbeaten in their last 5 games (WWDDW)
They recorded 3 wins and 2 draws
Their last match was a 1-0 away win against Lecce
Fiorentina has 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 games (WDDLD)
Their last match ended in a 0-0 home draw against Genoa
统计数据
Juventus averages 1.64 goals scored per game and concedes 0.83 goals per game
At home, Juventus averages 1.67 goals scored and 0.67 goals conceded
Fiorentina averages 1.06 goals scored per game and concedes 1.36 goals per game
Away from home, Fiorentina averages 1.06 goals scored and 1.71 goals conceded
The Juventus Stadium sees an average of 1.6 goals per game
Both teams scored in 40% of matches at the Juventus Stadium
Over 2.5 goals were scored in 0% of matches at the Juventus Stadium
历史交锋
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Juventus won 2, Fiorentina won 1, and there were 2 draws
The goal difference in these matches is 5:6 in favor of Fiorentina
The last encounter ended in a 1-1 draw on November 22, 2025
Juventus has been more dominant in recent head-to-head matches
关键球员
Juventus: Kenan Yıldız (10 goals, 6 assists, Avg Rating 7.42), Weston McKennie (5 goals, 5 assists, Avg Rating 7.04), Dušan Vlahović (5 goals, 1 assist, Avg Rating 6.85)
Fiorentina: Nicolò Fagioli (2 goals, 3 assists, Avg Rating 7.22), Roberto Piccoli (3 goals, 1 assist, Avg Rating 6.66), Robin Gosens (3 goals, 1 assist, Avg Rating 6.83)
门将
Juventus goalkeeper Michele Di Gregorio has kept 8 clean sheets in home games this season
Fiorentina goalkeeper David de Gea has kept 3 clean sheets in away games this season
影响因素
Juventus shows a solid home performance with an average of 1.67 goals scored and 0.67 goals conceded
The Juventus Stadium averages 1.6 goals per game
Both teams scored in 40% of matches, while over 2.5 goals were scored in 0% of matches
The pitch surface is grass