Eredivisie
Excelsior - Ajax
02/01/2026, 11:15 AM
预期进球
1.4
3.3
1.9
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
21%
平局
23%
客胜
56%
进球数
Over 1.5
91%
Over 2.5
74%
Over 3.5
46%
双重机会
主胜或平局
44%
客胜或平局
79%
非平局
77%
双方进球
是
68%
否
32%
关键因素
- Ajax's dominant offense (61% possession, 7.6 shots on target per game) meets Excelsior's vulnerable defense (1.75 goals conceded per game)
- The league standings (4th vs. 13th) and form trend (Ajax: WDWDW, Excelsior: LLLWL) indicate a clear advantage for the visitors
- Statistically, Ajax is the much more dangerous team, averaging 2.0 goals per away match
风险因素
- Despite Ajax's historical dominance, Excelsior won the most recent head-to-head match, which could boost their confidence
- The match is played on artificial turf, Excelsior's home surface, which could level the playing conditions
- Ajax had a shorter recovery period of only 4 days compared to Excelsior's 8 days, which could lead to fatigue
概述
Excelsior (13th place, 22 points) hosts Ajax (4th place, 37 points) at the Van Donge & De Roo Stadion
近期状态
Excelsior Form: WLDDD - 1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss in the last 5 games
Ajax Form: WDWWL - 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss in the last 5 games
Ajax is in better form than Excelsior
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
统计数据
Ajax is significantly stronger offensively, scoring an average of 1.95 goals per game compared to Excelsior's 1.0
Defensively, Ajax is also more stable, conceding an average of 1.3 goals, while Excelsior concedes 1.75
Ajax is particularly dangerous away from home, with an average of 2.0 goals per away game
Both teams scored in 14 of Ajax's 20 league games, while for Excelsior this occurred in 12 of 20 games
历史交锋
In 5 head-to-head matches, Ajax won 2 times, Excelsior won 1 time, and 2 games ended in a draw
The goal difference is 16:8 in favor of Ajax
However, Excelsior won the last encounter 2-1
关键球员
For Excelsior, Noah Naujoks with 6 season goals and Irakli Yegoian with 3 goals and 2 assists are important players
For Ajax, Mika Godts with 8 goals and 7 assists, and Oscar Gloukh with 5 goals and 5 assists are decisive
门将
Excelsior's goalkeeper Stijn van Gassel has kept 4 clean sheets in 20 matches this season
Ajax's goalkeeper Vitezslav Jaros has kept 5 clean sheets in 20 matches
影响因素
The match will be played on artificial turf
Excelsior's record on this surface is balanced with 4 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses
Ajax is unbeaten on artificial turf this season (1 win, 2 draws)
At the Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, there is an average of 2.6 goals per game, and both teams score in 60% of the matches