Eredivisie
Excelsior - AZ
02/14/2026, 05:45 PM
预期进球
1.3
2.7
1.4
1:1
14%1:2
9%2:1
8%0:2
7%2:2
6%模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
32%
平局
29%
客胜
39%
进球数
Over 1.5
77%
Under 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
51%
Under 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
29%
Under 3.5
71%
双重机会
主胜或平局
61%
客胜或平局
68%
非平局
71%
双方进球
是
56%
否
44%
关键因素
- Contrasting form: Excelsior is unbeaten in five games (DDDDW), while AZ is inconsistent (LDWLD), giving the home team resilience
- AZ's offensive strength: With 1.68 goals per game, AZ has a clear attacking advantage, while both defenses are vulnerable, increasing the likelihood of goals from both sides (57% BTTS probability)
- Numerous absences for AZ: The visitors will be without several players, including suspended midfielder P. Koopmeiners (21 season appearances), which could disrupt the team structure
风险因素
- Excelsior's weak offense: Although they have scored more recently, their season average is only 1.09 goals per game, which could be a problem against a stronger opponent
- Balanced win probabilities: The mathematical predictions are very close with 32% for a home win, 29% for a draw, and 39% for an away win, indicating an unpredictable outcome
- Historical record: AZ has clearly dominated the head-to-head encounters in the recent past with a goal difference of 12:4
概述
Excelsior (12th place, 26 points) host AZ (7th place, 33 points) at the Van Donge & De Roo Stadion
The Eredivisie match takes place on February 14, 2026, 6:45 PM
This is a mid-table clash where the mathematical forecast predicts a very close game, with a slight edge for the visitors (39% win probability)
近期状态
Excelsior's form in all competitions: DDDDW (1 win, 4 draws, 0 losses)
AZ's form in all competitions: LDWLD (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses)
Excelsior are unbeaten in their last five matches but have mostly drawn
AZ has been inconsistent recently with mixed results
However, AZ's league form (WDWWD) is significantly stronger than Excelsior's (LLLWL)
统计数据
AZ is more potent offensively with 1.68 goals per game compared to Excelsior's 1.09 goals
Both defenses are vulnerable, conceding over 1.6 goals per game on average
Both teams scored in 16 of AZ's 22 league games this season
For Excelsior, this occurred in 13 of 22 games
AZ has failed to score in only one match this season
历史交锋
In the last 5 direct encounters, AZ has the upper hand with 2 wins, compared to 1 for Excelsior, with 2 matches ending in a draw
The goal difference of 12:4 is clearly in favor of AZ
The last meeting on January 21, 2026, ended in a 1-1 draw
关键球员
For Excelsior, Noah Naujoks (6 season goals) and Irakli Yegoian (4 goals) are the most dangerous players in front of goal
Gyan de Regt is a key provider with 4 assists
For AZ, Troy Parrott is the standout striker with 11 season goals
Mees de Wit has contributed with 2 goals and 2 assists this season
门将
Excelsior's goalkeeper Stijn van Gassel has kept 5 clean sheets this season
AZ has also achieved 5 clean sheets in the season
Jeroen Zoet is expected to be in goal for AZ
影响因素
The match will be played on artificial turf, which could affect the home advantage
Both teams have a positive record on this surface
Excelsior has 4 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses on artificial turf
AZ has won 3 of their 5 games on this surface (1 draw, 1 loss)
Recently, matches at the Van Donge & De Roo Stadion have seen an average of 2.8 goals per game