Eredivisie
Ajax - NEC Nijmegen
02/21/2026, 08:00 PM
预期进球
1.6
2.7
1.1
1:1
13%2:1
9%2:0
8%1:2
7%2:2
5%模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
46%
平局
28%
客胜
26%
进球数
Over 1.5
77%
Under 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
51%
Under 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
29%
Under 3.5
71%
双重机会
主胜或平局
74%
客胜或平局
54%
非平局
72%
双方进球
是
55%
否
45%
关键因素
- Direct duel for 3rd place: Both teams are league neighbors with 42 points, which suggests an intense match
- Offensive power vs. home strength: NEC's outstanding attack (2.52 goals/game) meets Ajax's strong home defense (0.83 goals conceded/game)
- League table tension: A victory would give one of the teams a decisive advantage in the race for European spots
风险因素
- NEC's defensive weakness away from home: The team concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away game
- Historical stumbling block: Ajax lost their last home game against NEC convincingly 0-3, suggesting a potential vulnerability
概述
Top match in the Eredivisie: Ajax (4th place, 42 points) hosts NEC Nijmegen (3rd place, 42 points)
The match will take place on February 21, 2026, at 9:00 PM at the Johan Cruijff Arena
Both teams are level on points, fighting directly for supremacy in 3rd place
The mathematical analysis slightly favors Ajax with a 46% probability
近期状态
Ajax's form from the last five matches is WLDDW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
This corresponds to 2 wins, 2 draws, and one loss
NEC Nijmegen enters the match with a form of WWWLD
The visitors have secured 3 wins, one draw, and one loss from their last five encounters
统计数据
NEC Nijmegen has one of the strongest offenses in the league with 58 goals this season (avg 2.52 per game)
Ajax has scored 46 goals so far (avg 2.0 per game)
Defensively, Ajax is more stable, having conceded 30 goals (avg 1.3), while NEC has conceded 39 (avg 1.7)
At home, Ajax is particularly strong defensively (only 0.83 goals conceded per game), whereas NEC is very vulnerable away (2.0 goals conceded per game)
历史交锋
In the last 5 head-to-head duels, there were 2 wins for Ajax, one win for NEC, and 2 draws
The goal difference is slightly in favor of NEC at 9:8
The last encounter ended in a 2-2 draw
Particularly noteworthy: NEC won the last match at the Johan Cruijff Arena convincingly 3-0
关键球员
Youri Regeer: The midfielder has played in 18 games this season, providing 2 assists
Kian Fitz-Jim: Scored one goal in 12 appearances this season
Tjaronn Chery: A pivotal player with 6 goals and 5 assists in 22 games
Noé Lebreton: Another goal-threatening midfielder with 2 goals and 3 assists
Sami Ouaissa: Has significantly contributed to his team's success with 5 goals this season
门将
In goal for Ajax is Vitezslav Jaros, who has kept a clean sheet in 5 of 19 matches this season
NEC Nijmegen's goalkeeper is Gonzalo Crettaz, who has managed 3 clean sheets in 23 games
影响因素
Ajax enjoys a clear home advantage and is very stable defensively at home (only 0.83 goals conceded per game)
The Johan Cruijff Arena is known for high-scoring games, with an average of 3.2 goals in the last 5 matches
Both teams scored in 60% of these games