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Eredivisie

NEC Nijmegen - Fortuna Sittard

02/28/2026, 08:00 PM

2 : 3
预期进球
NEC Nijmegen
2.1
Total xG
3.1
Fortuna Sittard
1.0
最可能的比分

1:1

11%

2:1

10%

2:0

10%

3:1

7%

3:0

7%
xG 分解
NNFS

NEC Nijmegen

最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均2球)
-0.14
排名优势 (第3位 vs 第11位, 相差8位)
+0.08
Kento Shiogai未进首发 (0球, 0助攻)

Fortuna Sittard

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.75倍)
-0.51
防守不足 (场均失1.8球 vs 联赛平均1.4球)
+0.37
排名劣势 (第11位 vs 第3位, 相差8位)
-0.09
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.6球)
+0.03
客场表现不佳 (场均0.9球 vs 总体1.5球)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均3.2球)
+0.70
+0.70
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

60%

平局

23%

客胜

17%

进球数

Over 1.5

83%

Under 1.5

17%

Over 2.5

60%

Under 2.5

40%

Over 3.5

37%

Under 3.5

63%

双重机会

主胜或平局

84%

客胜或平局

40%

非平局

77%

双方进球

57%

43%

关键因素
  • Clear matchup imbalance: NEC's strong home offense (2.5 goals per game) meets Fortuna Sittard's extremely vulnerable away defense (2.5 goals conceded per game)
  • Dominance in the standings and on the pitch: As third in the table, NEC controls the game (61% possession), while Fortuna, in eleventh, tends to react
  • Strong prediction signal: The mathematical analysis supports the favorite's role with a 61% win probability for NEC Nijmegen
风险因素
  • Personnel worries for the visitors: Fortuna Sittard is weakened by several absences, including starting goalkeeper M. Branderhorst and goal-scoring midfielder J. Lonwijk (4 season goals)
  • NEC's defensive vulnerability: Despite being favorites, NEC concedes goals regularly; both teams scored in all of their last 5 home games. The probability of both teams scoring is 57%
概述

NEC Nijmegen (3rd place, 43 points) host Fortuna Sittard (11th place, 29 points) at the Goffertstadion

Eredivisie match on February 28, 2026, 9:00 PM

The home team enters the duel as clear favorites and aims to solidify their position among the top teams

近期状态

NEC Nijmegen form (all competitions): WWLDD

In the last 5 games, there have been 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

The last two matches ended in a draw

Fortuna Sittard form (all competitions): WLDLW

The record of the last 5 games is balanced with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

统计数据

NEC Nijmegen has one of the strongest attacks in the league, averaging 2.46 goals per game, and even 2.5 at home

Fortuna Sittard scores an average of 1.5 goals per game but concedes a worrying 2.5 goals away from home

For NEC, 20 out of 24 season games have seen both teams score

For Fortuna, this was the case in 18 out of 24 games

历史交锋

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, NEC Nijmegen has dominated with 3 wins to Fortuna Sittard's 1, with 1 draw

The goal difference is also clearly in NEC's favor at 14:6

However, Fortuna Sittard won the most recent encounter 3-2

关键球员

For NEC Nijmegen, Koki Ogawa (8 goals, 3 assists), Tjaronn Chery (6 goals, 5 assists), and Başar Önal (5 goals, 6 assists) are the key offensive players

For Fortuna Sittard, Kaj Sierhuis (9 goals), Mohamed Ihattaren (5 goals, 6 assists), and Lance Duijvestijn (2 goals in 5 appearances) are the crucial players

门将

Gonzalo Crettaz is the main goalkeeper for NEC Nijmegen

On the other side, Luuk Koopmans is in goal for Fortuna Sittard, as the main goalkeeper M. Branderhorst is injured

Both teams have kept 3 clean sheets this season so far

影响因素

The Goffertstadion is a fortress for NEC Nijmegen, where they score an average of 2.5 goals per game

The last 5 home games have been extremely high-scoring, with an average of 4.0 goals per game

In all 5 matches, both teams scored and there were always more than 2.5 goals

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