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Eredivisie

FC Groningen - Ajax

03/07/2026, 03:30 PM

3 : 1
预期进球
FC Groningen
1.3
Total xG
2.5
Ajax
1.3
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

2:1

8%

1:2

8%

2:0

6%

0:2

6%
xG 分解
FGAJA

FC Groningen

防守实力 (场均失1.5球 vs 联赛平均1.8球)
-0.31
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1球)
-0.11
状态下滑 (1 vs 1.4 赛季平均)
-0.11
排名劣势 (第11位 vs 第3位, 相差8位)
-0.11
Stije Resink未进大名单 (5球, 5助攻)
Younes Taha未进大名单 (4球, 6助攻)
Marco Rente替补席 (2球, 2助攻)
17%进球产出缺失 (仅62%可用)
主场表现强势 (场均1.7球 vs 总体1.4球)

Ajax

防守实力 (场均失1.6球 vs 联赛平均1.4球)
+0.21
排名优势 (第3位 vs 第11位, 相差8位)
+0.05
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.6球)
-0.04
Anton Gaaei替补席 (0球, 3助攻)
Youri Regeer未进大名单 (0球, 2助攻)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均3.2球)
+0.68
+0.68
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

35%

平局

30%

客胜

35%

进球数

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

双重机会

主胜或平局

65%

客胜或平局

65%

非平局

70%

双方进球

53%

47%

关键因素
  • Ajax's stronger league position (3rd place) and higher points total of 44
  • Ajax's superior recent form (1 win, 4 draws, 0 losses) and H2H dominance (4 wins in 5 encounters)
  • The mathematical model predicts a very balanced game with 1.26 expected goals for both teams, despite Ajax's strength
风险因素
  • FC Groningen has only 63% of its usual starting eleven strength, with Stije Resink (5G/5A), Younes Taha (4G/6A), and Marco Rente (2G/2A) not in the lineup
  • FC Groningen is on a negative run with 5 consecutive losses
  • The very balanced predicted goals of 1.26 for both teams suggest an unpredictable outcome
概述

FC Groningen (11th place, 31 points) hosts Ajax (3rd place, 44 points) in the Eredivisie. The match takes place on March 7, 2026, 4:30 PM at Euroborg. Ajax is fighting for top positions, while Groningen is in the mid-table.

近期状态

FC Groningen shows a negative form with LLLLL across all competitions. The team recorded 0 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses in their last five games. Their last defeat was a 2-3 away against FC Volendam. Ajax, on the other hand, has a more stable form with DDWDD. They recorded 1 win, 4 draws, and 0 losses in their last five games, including a 0-0 away against PEC Zwolle.

统计数据

FC Groningen scores an average of 1.32 goals and concedes 1.4 goals per game this season. At home, these values are 1.31 goals scored and 1.0 goals conceded. The team kept 7 clean sheets and scored in 13 matches, while over 2.5 goals were scored in 13 games. Ajax shows stronger offense with an average of 1.88 goals per game and 1.24 goals conceded. Away, they score 1.92 goals and concede 1.67 goals. Ajax achieved 6 clean sheets and both teams scored in 18 of their games. Over 2.5 goals were scored in 14 of Ajax's matches. At Euroborg, an average of 2.4 goals per game were scored. Both teams scored in 3 of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 of 5 games.

历史交锋

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ajax dominated with 4 wins and 1 draw. FC Groningen failed to win any of these games. The goal difference of 6:16 clearly favors Ajax. The last encounter on December 2, 2025, ended with a 2-0 victory for Ajax.

关键球员

For FC Groningen, Brynjólfur Willumsson stands out in attack with 6 season goals. Thom van Bergen contributed 5 goals and 3 assists and shows a declining form. Dies Janse, a defender, scored 1 season goal and shows a rising form with 1 goal in the last 3 games. For Ajax, Mika Godts is the top scorer with 13 goals and 8 assists and shows stable form. Youri Baas, a defender, scored 4 goals and 1 assist. Davy Klaassen in midfield contributed 4 goals and 2 assists.

门将

FC Groningen has Etienne Vaessen in goal, who kept 7 clean sheets this season and has an average rating of 6.89. For Ajax, Maarten Paes is in goal, who achieved an average rating of 7.43 in his 2 appearances and kept 6 clean sheets.

影响因素

The home team FC Groningen scored 17 goals at home and conceded 13 goals. The playing surface at Euroborg is grass. The stadium statistics show an average of 2.4 goals per game. Both teams scored in 60% of matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 80% of matches.

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