Eredivisie
Ajax - Sparta Rotterdam
03/14/2026, 08:00 PM
预期进球
2.2
3.1
1.0
1:1
10%2:0
10%2:1
10%3:0
7%3:1
7%xG 分解
Ajax
Sparta Rotterdam
联赛
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
63%
平局
22%
客胜
15%
进球数
Over 1.5
83%
Under 1.5
17%
Over 2.5
61%
Under 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
39%
Under 3.5
62%
双重机会
主胜或平局
85%
客胜或平局
37%
非平局
78%
双方进球
是
56%
否
44%
关键因素
- Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis favors Ajax with a 63% win probability
- Ajax's Home Strength: The team scores an average of 1.85 home goals and concedes only 0.85 goals at home
- Sparta Rotterdam's Away Defense: The visitors concede an average of 1.64 goals per away game
风险因素
- Ajax's Inconsistent Form: In their last 5 games, Ajax recorded 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss
- Ajax Player Absences: K. Dolberg (Abdominal Problems) and W. Weghorst (Yellow Card Suspension) are unavailable
概述
Ajax (5th place, 44 points) host Sparta Rotterdam (7th place, 38 points) at the Johan Cruijff Arena
Eredivisie match on March 14, 2026, 9:00 PM
Ajax aims to solidify their position in the European qualification spots and reduce the gap to the top teams
The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Ajax with 63% probability
近期状态
Ajax has shown mixed form recently with a DWDDL record (1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss)
Their last match ended in a 1-3 away loss against FC Groningen
Sparta Rotterdam is in a more difficult phase with a DDLLD form (0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses)
The team last played an away game, drawing 1-1 against PEC Zwolle
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
统计数据
Ajax scores an average of 1.85 goals per game and concedes 1.31 goals per game this season
At home, Ajax's offense is strong with an average of 1.85 goals per game, and their defense is solid with 0.85 goals conceded
Sparta Rotterdam averages 1.27 goals and 1.65 goals conceded per game this season
Away from home, Sparta Rotterdam scores an average of 1.29 goals and concedes 1.64 goals per match
The last 5 games at the Johan Cruijff Arena saw an average of 3.2 total goals
In these matches, both teams scored in 80% of the cases (4 out of 5 games)
Over 2.5 goals were scored in 60% of the matches (3 out of 5 games)
历史交锋
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ajax secured 2 wins, Sparta Rotterdam 0 wins, and there were 3 draws
Ajax scored a total of 10 goals, while Sparta Rotterdam scored 7 goals
The last encounter on October 4, 2025, ended in a 3-3 draw
Ajax has been the more dominant side in recent direct comparisons
关键球员
For Ajax, Mika Godts is a key player with 13 season goals and 8 assists, and an average rating of 7.51
His form is rising with 2 goals in his last 5 games (rating 8.08)
Davy Klaassen has contributed 5 goals and 2 assists this season
Defender Youri Baas has 4 goals and 1 assist this season
For Sparta Rotterdam, Tobias Lauritsen is the top scorer with 10 goals and 3 assists and a rating of 7.32
Shunsuke Mito registered 5 goals and 3 assists with a rating of 7.05
Joshua Kitolano scored 5 goals and 2 assists
门将
Ajax has kept a total of 6 clean sheets this season, 5 of which were in home games
Sparta Rotterdam has recorded 9 clean sheets this season, 5 of which were in away games
影响因素
The Johan Cruijff Arena has proven to be a venue for high-scoring matches in the last 5 games, with an average of 3.2 goals per game
The home team, Ajax, scores an average of 1.85 goals and concedes only 0.85 goals in their own stadium, suggesting a clear home advantage