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Eredivisie

Excelsior - FC Utrecht

04/26/2026, 10:15 AM

5 : 0
预期进球
Excelsior
1.1
Total xG
2.7
FC Utrecht
1.6
最可能的比分

1:1

13%

1:2

9%

0:2

9%

2:1

6%

2:2

5%
xG 分解
EXCFU

Excelsior

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.72倍)
-0.88
排名劣势 (第16位 vs 第8位, 相差8位)
-0.10
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1球)
-0.02
Ilias Bronkhorst替补席 (2球, 0助攻)
主场表现强势 (场均1.3球 vs 总体1.1球)

FC Utrecht

状态上升 (2.8 vs 1.6 赛季平均)
+0.34
最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均2.2球)
+0.17
最近5场中3场零封
-0.15
排名优势 (第8位 vs 第16位, 相差8位)
+0.06
防守实力 (场均失1.3球 vs 联赛平均1.4球)
-0.06

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均3.2球)
+0.67
+0.67
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

24%

平局

28%

客胜

48%

进球数

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

双重机会

主胜或平局

52%

客胜或平局

76%

非平局

72%

双方进球

55%

45%

关键因素
  • Pipeline forecast: The mathematical analysis favors FC Utrecht with a 48% win probability
  • Strong away form: FC Utrecht showed improved form in their last five games with DWWLW
  • Dominance in head-to-head: FC Utrecht won the last direct encounter 4:1 and has a 3:0 goal advantage in H2H
风险因素
  • Excelsior conceded an average of 1.5 goals per home game
  • Excelsior recorded 3 losses and 2 draws in their last five home matches
  • Limited data availability for duels in the last 5 games
概述

Excelsior (16th place, 28 points) hosts FC Utrecht (8th place, 44 points) at the Van Donge & De Roo Stadion

Eredivisie match on April 26, 2026, 12:15 PM

Excelsior is fighting against relegation, while Utrecht is aiming for a European spot

The mathematical analysis predicts FC Utrecht as the favorite with a 48% probability

A draw is predicted at 28%, and a home win for Excelsior at 24%

近期状态

Excelsior showed poor form in their last five matches with LLDLD (0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses)

Their last match ended in a draw

FC Utrecht, on the other hand, is in better shape with DWWLW (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss) from their last five games

Their last result was a win

Utrecht demonstrates a rising form curve, while Excelsior is in a downward spiral

统计数据

Excelsior scores an average of 1.03 goals per game and concedes an average of 1.7 goals per game this season

In home games, the average is 1.0 goals scored and 1.5 goals conceded

The team kept 5 clean sheets this season

FC Utrecht scores an average of 1.63 goals per game and concedes 1.2 goals per game

Away from home, Utrecht scores an average of 1.69 goals and concedes 1.77 goals

The team recorded 7 clean sheets

The stadium averages 2.6 goals per game

In 3 out of 5 matches at this venue, both teams scored, and in 3 out of 5 matches, over 2.5 goals were scored

Excelsior consistently scores (~1.0 goals per game)

FC Utrecht is currently scoring more frequently (2.8) than their season average (1.6)

历史交锋

In 3 direct encounters, Excelsior has not secured a single win, while FC Utrecht won once and there were two draws

The goal difference in these matches is 4:7 in favor of FC Utrecht

The last meeting on August 24, 2025, ended with a 4:1 away victory for FC Utrecht

FC Utrecht has recently been dominant in head-to-head comparisons

关键球员

Excelsior's key midfielders include Noah Naujoks (8 goals, 1 assist, stable form)

Attacker Derensili Sanches Fernandes is an important factor with 3 goals and 2 assists and rising form

Irakli Yegoian contributed 4 goals and 2 assists this season, but his form is declining

For FC Utrecht, midfielder Gjivai Zechiêl is crucial with 8 goals and 4 assists and stable form

Defender Souffian El Karouani stands out with 10 assists, although his form is declining

Forward Artem Stepanov scored 4 goals and 1 assist this season, and in the last 5 games, he scored 3 goals with stable form

门将

Stijn van Gassel is in goal for Excelsior, with a season average rating of 7.18 and 5 clean sheets

For FC Utrecht, Vasilios Barkas is the goalkeeper, with a season average rating of 7.05 and 7 clean sheets

Vasilios Barkas shows a rising form trend

影响因素

The match will be played on artificial turf

Excelsior has a record of 1 win, 4 draws, and 5 losses (11:17 goals) on artificial turf

FC Utrecht has a record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses (8:6 goals) on artificial turf

Excelsior scores an average of 1.0 goals at home and concedes 1.5 goals

FC Utrecht scores an average of 1.69 goals away and concedes 1.77 goals

The Van Donge & De Roo Stadion has averaged 2.6 total goals per game in the last 5 matches, with both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals occurring in 3 out of 5 games

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