Eredivisie
Ajax - PSV
05/02/2026, 06:00 PM
预期进球
1.4
3.1
1.7
1:1
12%1:2
9%2:1
8%0:2
6%2:2
6%xG 分解
Ajax
PSV
联赛
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
31%
平局
26%
客胜
43%
进球数
Over 1.5
83%
Under 1.5
17%
Over 2.5
60%
Under 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
38%
Under 3.5
62%
双重机会
主胜或平局
57%
客胜或平局
69%
非平局
74%
双方进球
是
63%
否
37%
关键因素
- PSV's Offensive Power: As Eredivisie leaders, PSV has scored 90 goals, averaging 2.9 goals per game, with 3.0 goals per game recently
- Mathematical Analysis Forecast: The model predicts an away win for PSV with a 43% probability, compared to 31% for an Ajax home win
- High Goal Potential: Both teams show positive attacking form, and venue statistics indicate a high-scoring game with an average of 3.4 goals, 80% BTTS, and 80% Over 2.5
风险因素
- PSV's Mixed Head-to-Head Record: Despite their strong league position, PSV has a mixed record against Ajax in recent direct duels, with Ajax indicated as "home" dominant in the H2H summary
- Ajax's Solid Home Defense: Ajax concedes an average of only 0.87 goals per home game this season, which could challenge PSV's potent attack
- PSV's Recent Form Vulnerability: PSV's current form includes two losses in their last five matches, indicating some vulnerability
概述
Ajax (4th place, 54 points) host current Eredivisie leader PSV (1st place, 77 points) at the Johan Cruijff Arena
The match takes place on May 2, 2026, 8:00 PM
Ajax is fighting for European spots, while PSV leads the league
The mathematical analysis predicts an away win for PSV with a 43% probability, while a home win for Ajax is at 31%
近期状态
Ajax's form in their last five league matches is WDLWW
This equates to 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss
Ajax won their last two games consecutively
PSV's form in their last five league matches is LLWWW
PSV achieved 3 wins and suffered 2 losses
PSV won their last three games consecutively
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
统计数据
Ajax scores an average of 1.9 goals per game and concedes 1.19 goals per match
At home, Ajax averages 1.93 goals scored and 0.87 goals conceded
Ajax kept 9 clean sheets, and both teams scored in 21 matches
PSV scores an average of 2.9 goals per game and concedes 1.32 goals per match
Away from home, PSV averages 2.85 goals scored and 1.23 goals conceded
PSV kept 7 clean sheets, and both teams scored in 23 matches
Ajax is currently scoring more frequently (2.2) than their season average (1.8)
PSV is currently scoring more frequently (3.0) than their season average (2.7)
The Johan Cruijff Arena saw an average of 3.4 total goals per game in the last 5 matches
Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 out of 5 games
历史交锋
In the previous 5 head-to-head matches, there were 2 wins for PSV, 1 win for Ajax, and 2 draws
The goal difference in these encounters is balanced at 10:10
The last meeting ended in a 2:2 draw on September 21, 2025
The direct head-to-head record is summarized as "home" dominant
关键球员
Mika Godts (Attacker) is Ajax's most dangerous player with 16 goals and 11 assists, his form is stable
Steven Berghuis (Attacker) contributed 4 goals and 2 assists, scoring 3 goals in the last 5 games and showing rising form
Kasper Dolberg (Attacker) chipped in with 3 goals and 3 assists, his form is stable
Wout Weghorst (7 goals, 4 assists) and Sean Steur (1 goal, 1 assist) are not in the lineup, reducing Ajax's usual starting XI goal threat by 12%
Joey Veerman (Midfielder) is a crucial player for PSV with 8 goals and 14 assists, his form is declining
Guus Til (Midfielder) scored 13 goals and 5 assists, with 1 goal and 2 assists in the last 4 games, his form is stable
Ricardo Pepi (Attacker) is a key player with 13 goals and 1 assist, with 3 goals and 1 assist in the last 4 games, showing rising form
Although Ismael Saibari (15 goals, 8 assists), Ivan Perišić (5 goals, 10 assists), Dennis Man (6 goals, 6 assists), and Jerdy Schouten (1 goal, 2 assists) are not in the lineup, PSV's usual starting XI goal threat remains at 100%
门将
Ajax's goalkeeper, Maarten Paes, achieved 9 clean sheets this season
PSV's goalkeeper, Matej Kovar, has recorded 7 clean sheets this season
影响因素
The Johan Cruijff Arena has seen an average of 3.4 total goals per match in the last 5 games
Both teams scored in 80% of the matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 80% of the matches
Ajax scores an average of 1.93 goals at home and concedes only 0.87 goals
PSV is strong offensively away from home with an average of 2.85 goals scored and 1.23 goals conceded per game