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Eredivisie

AZ - NAC Breda

05/17/2026, 12:30 PM

3 : 3
预期进球
AZ
1.9
Total xG
2.7
NAC Breda
0.8
最可能的比分

2:0

12%

1:1

12%

2:1

10%

3:0

8%

3:1

6%
xG 分解
AZNB

AZ

防守实力 (场均失1.4球 vs 联赛平均1.8球)
-0.43
排名优势 (第6位 vs 第17位, 相差11位)
+0.10
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.6球)
-0.08
Mees de Wit替补席 (3球, 6助攻)

NAC Breda

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.7倍)
-0.69
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.6球)
-0.13
排名劣势 (第17位 vs 第6位, 相差11位)
-0.10
状态下滑 (0.8 vs 1 赛季平均)
-0.08
Boy Kemper替补席 (5球, 3助攻)
Lewis Holtby替补席 (1球, 5助攻)
Mohamed Nassoh未进大名单 (5球, 1助攻)
Raul Paula未进大名单 (2球, 2助攻)
58%进球产出缺失 (仅33%可用)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均3.2球)
+0.67
+0.67
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

61%

平局

25%

客胜

14%

进球数

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

双重机会

主胜或平局

86%

客胜或平局

39%

非平局

75%

双方进球

48%

52%

关键因素
  • AZ is favored to win at home with approximately 61% probability according to mathematical analysis
  • NAC Breda's squad strength is critically reduced: Only 34% of the usual starting XI's goal threat is available, without Boy Kemper (5G/3A), Lewis Holtby (1G/5A), Mohamed Nassoh (5G/1A), and Raul Paula (2G/2A)
  • AZ is offensively strong at home (Avg. 1.64 goals) and faces a weak away defense from NAC Breda (Avg. 2.67 goals conceded)
风险因素
  • NAC Breda concedes an average of 2.67 goals per away game
  • Limited data available for the total number of duels in the last 5 games for both teams
概述

AZ (6th place, 51 points) host NAC Breda (17th place, 28 points) at the AFAS Stadion

The Eredivisie match takes place on May 17, 2026, 2:30 PM

AZ enters this home game as a clear favorite

Mathematical analysis indicates a home win with approximately 61% probability

近期状态

AZ's form in the last five matches is 'WDDDD' (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

This corresponds to one win and four draws

AZ's current form is stable according to the analysis

NAC Breda shows a form of 'DDLLW'

This means one win, two draws, and two losses in the last five games

NAC Breda is in a negative form trend according to the analysis

统计数据

AZ scores an average of 1.67 goals per game and concedes 1.45 goals

At home, AZ is stronger offensively with an average of 1.64 goals and defensively with 1.05 goals conceded per home game

AZ kept 9 clean sheets, and both teams scored in 21 matches

NAC Breda scores an average of 0.97 goals and concedes 1.67 goals per game

Away, NAC Breda is particularly vulnerable, conceding an average of 2.67 goals per away game

NAC Breda has achieved only 6 clean sheets so far, and both teams scored in 15 games

The AFAS Stadion recorded an average of 3.4 goals per game in the last 5 matches

More than 2.5 goals were scored in 4 out of 5 games at the AFAS Stadion

历史交锋

In the 3 direct encounters so far, AZ recorded 2 wins

One match ended in a draw, NAC Breda secured no wins

AZ scored 4 goals, while NAC Breda managed 2 goals

AZ won the last encounter on August 31, 2025, with a 1-0 score

关键球员

For AZ, Troy Parrott is a key offensive player with 16 season goals and 3 assists

He scored 2 goals in the last 5 games and has a stable form

Sven Mijnans, in midfield, contributed 10 goals and 5 assists this season

He also scored 2 goals in the last 5 games and has a stable form

Defender Alexandre Penetra showed improved performance with a rising form trend

门将

AZ's goalkeeper Rome Jayden Owusu-Oduro played 22 games

His team kept 9 clean sheets this season

Daniel Bielica was in goal for NAC Breda in 32 games

NAC Breda achieved 6 clean sheets this season

影响因素

The AFAS Stadion saw an average of 3.4 goals per game in the last five matches

4 out of 5 games at the AFAS Stadion ended with over 2.5 goals

AZ is strong offensively at home with an average of 1.64 goals per game

Defensively, AZ concedes an average of 1.05 goals in their home stadium

NAC Breda appears vulnerable away from home, conceding an average of 2.67 goals per away game

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