Bundesliga
SC Freiburg - FC Köln
01/25/2026, 04:30 PM
预期进球
1.9
3.1
1.2
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
52%
平局
27%
客胜
21%
进球数
Over 1.5
84%
Over 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
37%
双重机会
主胜或平局
79%
客胜或平局
48%
非平局
73%
双方进球
是
64%
否
36%
关键因素
- Massive weakening of the visitors: FC Köln is missing top scorer S. El Mala, who is responsible for 26% of their season's goals
- Home strength meets away weakness: Freiburg's stable defense (1.0 goals conceded/home game) faces Köln's vulnerable backline (2.14 goals conceded/away game)
- Diverging form trends: Freiburg has been more stable over the last five games (3 wins), while Köln shows a negative trend (3 losses)
风险因素
- Potential fatigue for Freiburg: The home team has only had a 3-day break since their last match
- Recent H2H result: Despite the overall record, Köln won the last head-to-head encounter convincingly 4-1
- Numerous absences on both sides: Both teams are missing several key players, which could affect performance
概述
SC Freiburg (8th place, 24 points) hosts FC Köln (10th place, 20 points) at the Europa-Park Stadion
This is a Bundesliga match on January 25, 2026, at 5:30 PM
A mid-table clash where Freiburg will try to maintain the distance to the European spots
近期状态
SC Freiburg: WWLDW (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss)
FC Köln: LLDLW (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses)
The form curve clearly favors SC Freiburg, who have picked up points much more consistently in the last five games
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
统计数据
Offensively, both teams are comparable, with Freiburg scoring an average of 1.61 goals per game and Köln 1.5
Defensively, there is a clear difference between home and away games
Freiburg is very stable at home, conceding only 1.0 goal per game
On the other hand, Köln is vulnerable away, conceding an average of 2.14 goals
历史交锋
In the last 5 direct encounters, SC Freiburg has the upper hand with 3 wins, while FC Köln won once, and one match ended in a draw
The goal difference is 6:4 in favor of Freiburg
However, the last meeting on August 31, 2025, was won by FC Köln 4-1
关键球员
Vincenzo Grifo is a key offensive player for Freiburg with 6 goals this season
Igor Matanovic is in good form, having scored 3 goals in his last 5 appearances
For Köln, Ragnar Ache is a central striker with 3 season goals and 2 goals in the last 5 games
Jakub Kamiński has already scored 5 goals this season
门将
Freiburg's goalkeeper Noah Atubolu has kept 4 clean sheets in 18 matches
Marvin Schwäbe of FC Köln has 2 clean sheets in 18 appearances
Statistically, Atubolu has a better clean sheet record this season
影响因素
The home advantage for Freiburg is statistically significant
They have a positive home record (5W-3D-2L), while Köln has a negative record away (2W-3D-5L)
At the Europa-Park Stadion, an average of 2.2 goals are scored per game, which suggests games with fewer goals
Both teams are used to the natural grass surface