Atalanta (15th place, 13 points) hosts Borussia Dortmund (17th place, 11 points) at the Gewiss Stadium for a Champions League clash. The match takes place on February 25, 2026, at 6:45 PM. It's a meeting of close table neighbors where both teams are aiming for crucial points. The mathematical analysis suggests a very balanced game, with a slight edge for Dortmund (38% win probability) over Atalanta (36%).

Both teams are in strong form. Atalanta have won 4 of their last 5 matches (Form: WWWLW). Borussia Dortmund are unbeaten in their last 5 games, recording 4 wins and 1 draw (Form: WWWWD). Dortmund's last result was a draw, while Atalanta won their last game. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.

Borussia Dortmund has been significantly more dangerous in front of goal this season, averaging 2.14 goals per game, while Atalanta averages 1.38. BVB is particularly strong away from home with 2.1 goals per game. Atalanta's strength lies in their defense, especially at home, where they concede an average of just 0.69 goals. Dortmund has not failed to score in any game this season. The prediction for over 2.5 goals is at 61%, which could point to an entertaining match.

In the 3 direct encounters to date, Borussia Dortmund has the upper hand. Dortmund won 2 matches, while 1 game ended in a draw. Atalanta has not yet secured a victory. The goal difference also favors Dortmund at 6:3. The last meeting took place recently, on February 17, 2026, and ended in a 2-0 victory for Dortmund.

For Atalanta, Gianluca Scamacca (2 season goals) and Lazar Samardžić (2 season goals) could provide the attacking threat, while Mario Pašalić is showing rising form. For Borussia Dortmund, Serhou Guirassy is the central offensive player with 4 season goals and 3 assists, demonstrating outstanding form in his recent appearances. Julian Brandt and Felix Nmecha, both with 3 season goals, are also key pillars in midfield.

The duel in goal will be between Marco Carnesecchi for Atalanta and Gregor Kobel for Borussia Dortmund. Atalanta has kept 10 clean sheets this season, while Dortmund has managed 11. Both defensive units have proven to be stable, making this matchup particularly interesting.

The Gewiss Stadium has recently been a venue for high-scoring games, with an average of 3.6 goals in the last five matches, all of which had over 2.5 goals. Atalanta is very strong defensively at home, conceding an average of only 0.69 goals. In contrast, Dortmund has an impressive away offense, scoring an average of 2.1 goals per game. This clash of home strength versus away threat will shape the game.