Champions League
Monaco - Paris Saint Germain
02/17/2026, 08:00 PM
预期进球
1.5
2.9
1.4
1:1
13%2:1
9%1:2
8%2:2
6%2:0
6%模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
37%
平局
28%
客胜
35%
进球数
Over 1.5
81%
Under 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
56%
Under 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
34%
Under 3.5
66%
双重机会
主胜或平局
65%
客胜或平局
63%
非平局
72%
双方进球
是
61%
否
39%
关键因素
- Severely weakened offenses: Monaco enters with only 14% of its seasonal goal threat, while PSG also has only 43% available, significantly reducing the attacking power of both teams
- Tactical contrast: PSG's dominant, possession-based style (66% possession) meets Monaco's more balanced approach
- Form versus class: Monaco is unbeaten in five games but faces a PSG team that is statistically superior over the entire season
风险因素
- Unpredictability due to absences: The massive reduction in goal threat on both sides (14% for Monaco, 43% for PSG) makes the match outcome harder to predict
- PSG's dip in form: The 1-3 loss in the last match ended Paris Saint Germain's winning streak and could affect their confidence
- Monaco's goal drought risk: Despite recent good form, Monaco has failed to score in 6 of 22 games this season
概述
Monaco (21st place, 10 points) hosts Paris Saint Germain (11th place, 14 points) at Stade Louis II. for a Champions League clash
The match takes place on February 17, 2026, at 9:00 PM
Mathematical models suggest a very balanced game, with a slight edge for Monaco (38% win probability) over PSG (35%)
近期状态
Monaco's form (all competitions): DDWDW
From the last five matches, Monaco has 2 wins and 3 draws, remaining unbeaten
Paris Saint Germain's form (all competitions): WDWWL
PSG has won 3 of their last five games, with one draw and one loss
Their last match ended in a defeat
统计数据
Paris Saint Germain boasts a significantly stronger offense, averaging 2.23 goals per game compared to Monaco's 1.59
Defensively, PSG is also more solid with only 0.86 goals conceded per game, versus Monaco's 1.55
Matches at Stade Louis II. average 3.2 goals, and in 80% of the last five games, there were more than 2.5 goals
历史交锋
In the last five head-to-head encounters, Paris Saint Germain has the upper hand with 3 wins, while Monaco won once, and one match ended in a draw
The goal difference also clearly favors PSG with 13:6 goals
However, Monaco won the most recent meeting 1-0
关键球员
For Monaco, Folarin Balogun (3 season goals) and Simon Adingra, who scored 2 goals in his last three appearances, could be dangerous
Denis Zakaria is showing rising form with one goal in the last five games
For Paris Saint Germain, all eyes are on Vitinha (5 season goals, 1 assist) and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (3 goals, 3 assists)
Ousmane Dembélé is in outstanding form, having been directly involved in five goals in the last five matches (3 goals, 2 assists)
门将
Monaco's goalkeeper is Philipp Köhn
This season, his team has kept 5 clean sheets in 22 matches
In goal for Paris Saint Germain is Matvey Safonov
His team has already managed 11 clean sheets in 22 season matches
影响因素
Monaco has a solid home record, averaging 1.56 goals scored and only 1.19 goals conceded per game at Stade Louis II.
Recent matches at this stadium have been high-scoring, with an average of 3.2 goals per game
Four of the last five home games have seen over 2.5 goals