Champions League
Benfica - Real Madrid
02/17/2026, 08:00 PM
预期进球
1.5
2.9
1.4
1:1
13%2:1
9%1:2
8%2:2
6%2:0
6%模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
37%
平局
27%
客胜
35%
进球数
Over 1.5
81%
Under 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
57%
Under 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
34%
Under 3.5
66%
双重机会
主胜或平局
65%
客胜或平局
63%
非平局
73%
双方进球
是
61%
否
39%
关键因素
- Significant squad issues: Both teams are missing a large part of their goal threat, with data suggesting only about 33% of the usual goal production is available
- Psychological advantage for Benfica: The home team won the last head-to-head encounter 4-2 at the same stadium just a few weeks ago
- Balanced prediction: The mathematical analysis shows almost even odds with 37% (home win), 28% (draw), and 35% (away win), highlighting the unpredictability
风险因素
- Potential fatigue for Real Madrid: The team has had only 3 days of rest since their last match, which could lead to signs of strain
- Key absence: The absence of Jude Bellingham (hamstring injury) deprives Real Madrid of a central figure in midfield
- Unpredictable attack: With both teams missing a significant portion of their seasonal goalscorers, the actual offensive output is difficult to predict
概述
Benfica (24th place, 9 points) hosts Real Madrid (9th place, 15 points) at the Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica
Champions League match on February 17, 2026, 9:00 PM
A clash of European giants where both teams are aiming to improve their position in the league phase
The mathematical forecast is very balanced with a 37% chance for a home win, 28% for a draw, and 35% for an away win
近期状态
Benfica form: WWDWW
In the last 5 matches, Benfica has secured 4 wins and 1 draw, remaining unbeaten
The team is on an excellent run of form
Real Madrid form: WLWWW
Real Madrid has also won 4 of their last 5 matches
Their only defeat in this series was away against today's opponent, Benfica
统计数据
Both teams have been extremely potent in front of goal this season
Benfica averages 2.09 goals per game over the season (2.08 at home)
Real Madrid has an average of 2.21 goals per game (2.18 away)
Defensively, Benfica is slightly more stable with only 0.59 goals conceded per game compared to Real Madrid's 0.79
Matches at the Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica are often high-scoring, with an average of 3.6 goals in the last 5 games
历史交锋
The only direct encounter in recent history took place just a few weeks ago
Benfica won that home match on January 28, 2026, with a score of 4-2
This gives Benfica the edge in the head-to-head record
关键球员
Vangelis Pavlidis is in outstanding form for Benfica with 5 goals and 2 assists in his last 5 appearances
Andreas Schjelderup has also been clinical with 3 goals in the last 5 games
Fredrik Aursnes is a key creator in midfield with 4 assists this season
For Real Madrid, Kylian Mbappé is the standout player with 13 season goals in just 7 matches
Vinicius Junior has already contributed 4 assists this season
Arda Güler has also established himself as an important provider with 4 assists
门将
Anatoliy Trubin will be in goal for Benfica
Real Madrid's goal will be guarded by Thibaut Courtois
Both teams have kept 11 clean sheets this season, indicating solid defensive performances from both sides
影响因素
Benfica is a force at home, averaging 2.08 goals per game while conceding only 0.67
The Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica is known for high-scoring matches, as shown by the average of 3.6 goals in recent games
Over 2.5 goals have been scored in 80% of Benfica's last home matches