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Copa Del Rey

FC Barcelona - Atlético de Madrid

03/03/2026, 08:00 PM

3 : 0
预期进球
FC Barcelona
2.1
Total xG
3.0
Atlético de Madrid
0.9
最可能的比分

2:0

11%

1:1

11%

2:1

10%

3:0

8%

3:1

7%
xG 分解
FBADM

FC Barcelona

进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.88倍)
+0.76
防守实力 (场均失1.2球 vs 联赛平均1.5球)
-0.35
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均2.2球)
-0.12
Dani Olmo未进首发 (0球, 0助攻)
Robert Lewandowski未进首发 (11球, 1助攻)
Frenkie de Jong未进首发 (1球, 4助攻)
Eric García未进首发 (0球, 0助攻)
Alejandro Balde未进首发 (0球, 0助攻)

Atlético de Madrid

最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均2.4球)
+0.10
防守实力 (场均失1.1球 vs 联赛平均1.1球)
+0.01
Álex Baena未进首发 (0球, 0助攻)
Thiago Almada未进首发 (0球, 0助攻)
客场表现不佳 (场均0.9球 vs 总体2球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

63%

平局

22%

客胜

14%

进球数

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

58%

Under 2.5

42%

Over 3.5

35%

Under 3.5

65%

双重机会

主胜或平局

86%

客胜或平局

37%

非平局

78%

双方进球

54%

46%

关键因素
  • Fortress Camp Nou: Barcelona's immense home strength, averaging 2.73 goals scored and only 0.40 conceded per game
  • Superior Firepower: Barcelona's attack averages 2.73 goals per game for the season, while Atlético's away defense is vulnerable, conceding 1.62 goals per game
  • Current Form Trend: Atlético Madrid enters the match on a three-game winning streak with an improved goal average (2.4 recently)
风险因素
  • Key Absences for Barcelona: Key players like R. Lewandowski and F. de Jong are missing due to injury, which could impact their offense and midfield
  • Short Recovery Time: Both teams have had only three days of rest since their last match, which could lead to fatigue
  • Psychological Edge for Atlético: Atlético won the most recent head-to-head encounter decisively with a 4-0 victory just a few weeks ago
概述

In the Copa Del Rey, FC Barcelona hosts Atlético Madrid at Camp Nou

The match takes place on March 3, 2026, 9:00 PM

The mathematical analysis favors FC Barcelona with a 63% probability of winning

近期状态

FC Barcelona form: WLLWW

In the last 5 games, there have been 3 wins and 2 losses

The team comes into this match with two consecutive wins

Atlético Madrid form: LDWWW

Atlético Madrid has recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches

The visitors are on a three-game winning streak

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

FC Barcelona is extremely strong at home, scoring an average of 2.73 goals per home game while conceding only 0.40 goals

Atlético Madrid scores an average of 1.62 goals away and also concedes 1.62 goals per game

Matches at Camp Nou have recently been very high-scoring, with an average of 3.8 goals per game in the last five fixtures

历史交锋

In the last 5 head-to-head encounters, FC Barcelona has won 3 times, Atlético Madrid won once, and one match ended in a draw

The goal difference is 12:11 in favor of FC Barcelona

However, Atlético Madrid won the last meeting clearly with a 4-0 victory

关键球员

Lamine Yamal (13 season goals, 9 assists)

Ferran Torres (12 season goals, 1 assist)

Raphinha (8 season goals, 3 assists)

Alexander Sørloth (9 season goals, 0 assists)

Julián Alvarez (8 season goals, 3 assists)

Koke (2 season goals, 2 assists)

门将

In goal for FC Barcelona is Joan García, whose team has kept 10 clean sheets this season

For Atlético Madrid, Juan Musso is in goal; the team has achieved 11 clean sheets so far

影响因素

The home advantage for FC Barcelona is statistically significant, with an impressive record of 41 goals scored and only 6 conceded in 15 home games

The last five matches at Camp Nou have all been high-scoring, with over 2.5 goals in every game

The average total goals at the stadium is 3.8 per match

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