Bundesliga
Hamburger SV - RB Leipzig
03/01/2026, 06:30 PM
预期进球
1.5
3.2
1.7
1:1
12%1:2
9%2:1
8%2:2
7%0:2
6%xG 分解
Hamburger SV
RB Leipzig
联赛
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
33%
平局
26%
客胜
41%
进球数
Over 1.5
84%
Under 1.5
16%
Over 2.5
62%
Under 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
39%
Under 3.5
61%
双重机会
主胜或平局
59%
客胜或平局
67%
非平局
74%
双方进球
是
65%
否
35%
关键因素
- Critical personnel issues for HSV: The home team has only 52% of its seasonal goal-scoring threat available, significantly weakening their attack
- Statistical superiority of Leipzig: Despite recent poor form, RB Leipzig is the stronger team over the whole season, especially in attack (1.91 vs 1.14 goals per game)
- Mathematical forecast: The calculations favor Leipzig with a 41% win probability, likely due to HSV's significant player absences
风险因素
- Leipzig's poor form: The visitors have won only one of their last five matches, and their goal production is declining according to statistics (from 2.0 to 1.6 goals)
- HSV's strong run: Hamburg is unbeaten in five games and shows a positive trend in goal scoring (from 1.4 to 2.0 goals per game)
概述
Hamburger SV (11th place, 26 points) hosts RB Leipzig (5th place, 41 points) at the Volksparkstadion
The Bundesliga match kicks off on March 1, 2026, 7:30 PM
The visitors from Leipzig are fighting for European spots, while HSV is in the mid-table
近期状态
Hamburger SV's form: DDWWD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
HSV is unbeaten in their last five matches, with 2 wins and 3 draws
RB Leipzig's form: DLWDD
RB Leipzig has managed to win only one of their last five games (1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss)
统计数据
RB Leipzig is significantly stronger offensively, averaging 1.91 goals per game compared to Hamburger SV's 1.14 goals
Defensively, the numbers are more similar, with Leipzig conceding 1.36 goals per game and HSV 1.45
Leipzig is particularly potent away from home, scoring 1.89 goals per game, while HSV averages 1.12 goals at home
历史交锋
In the last five head-to-head encounters, RB Leipzig dominated with 3 wins compared to one win for Hamburger SV and one draw
The last match ended in a 2-1 victory for Leipzig
The goal difference also favors the visitors at 9:5
关键球员
Fábió Vieira (3 goals, 4 assists), Rayan Philippe (5 goals), and Luka Vuskovic (4 goals) are key players for HSV
For RB Leipzig, Christoph Baumgartner (8 goals, 7 assists), Yan Diomande (8 goals, 4 assists), and Rômulo (6 goals, 4 assists) stand out
门将
HSV's Daniel Heuer Fernandes has kept 6 clean sheets in 22 matches this season
For Leipzig, Maarten Vandevoordt starts in goal for the injured Péter Gulácsi; the team has achieved a total of 9 clean sheets this season
影响因素
The Volksparkstadion has recently been a venue for high-scoring games, with an average of 3.2 goals in the last five matches
In four of these five HSV home games, both teams have scored