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Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund - FC Bayern München

02/28/2026, 05:30 PM

2 : 3
预期进球
Borussia Dortmund
1.5
Total xG
3.7
FC Bayern München
2.3
最可能的比分

1:2

9%

1:3

7%

2:2

7%

2:1

6%

2:3

5%
xG 分解
BDFBM

Borussia Dortmund

防守实力 (场均失1.3球 vs 联赛平均1.8球)
-0.45
最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均2.2球)
+0.02
Julian Ryerson未进首发 (0球, 11助攻)
Karim Adeyemi未进首发 (0球, 0助攻)
Fábio Silva未进首发 (0球, 0助攻)

FC Bayern München

进攻实力 (联赛平均的2.23倍)
+1.16
防守实力 (场均失0.9球 vs 联赛平均1.4球)
-0.48
最近5场中5场打进2+球 (场均3球)
-0.14
K. Laimer未进首发 (2球, 4助攻)
客场表现不佳 (场均2.7球 vs 总体3.4球)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均3.2球)
+0.67
+0.67
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

23%

平局

22%

客胜

55%

进球数

Over 1.5

90%

Under 1.5

11%

Over 2.5

72%

Under 2.5

28%

Over 3.5

51%

Under 3.5

49%

双重机会

主胜或平局

45%

客胜或平局

77%

非平局

78%

双方进球

70%

30%

关键因素
  • Bayern's offense is in a class of its own, averaging 3.7 goals per game, and faces a weakened Dortmund defense
  • The visitors from Munich are in significantly better form, unbeaten in 5 games, and travel as favorites, supported by a 55% win probability
  • Tactical superiority: Bayern dominates with 60% possession and creates an average of 9.6 shots on goal per game
风险因素
  • Borussia Dortmund has had only 3 days to recover since their last match, which could be a disadvantage in terms of freshness
  • Both teams have to replace key defenders: Dortmund is missing the suspended Ryerson, while Bayern is without Davies, Ito, and goalkeeper Neuer, among others
概述

Top-of-the-table clash in the Bundesliga: Second-placed Borussia Dortmund (52 points) host leaders FC Bayern München (60 points) at Signal Iduna Park

Kick-off is on February 28, 2026, at 6:30 PM

For BVB, it's about closing the eight-point gap to stay in the title race

近期状态

Borussia Dortmund's form: WWWDL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

BVB have 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss from their last 5 matches, but their recent form has been trending downwards

FC Bayern München's form: WDWWW

Bayern are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 wins, 1 draw) and travel to Dortmund on the back of 3 consecutive wins

统计数据

Bayern's outstanding attack (avg. 3.7 goals per game) meets Dortmund's strong offense (avg. 2.14 goals)

Defensively, both teams are statistically identical with only 0.91 goals conceded per game

At home, BVB is a force, conceding an average of just 0.67 goals

Remarkably, all 23 of FC Bayern's league games this season have seen over 2.5 goals

历史交锋

FC Bayern has had the upper hand in the last 5 direct encounters

The team from Munich won 2 matches, Dortmund won once, and 2 games ended in a draw

The goal difference is 9-6 in favor of FC Bayern

Bayern won the last meeting 2-1

关键球员

For Dortmund, key players include Serhou Guirassy (11 season goals, 2 assists), Julian Brandt (6 goals, 2 assists), and Felix Nmecha (2 goals, 3 assists)

Bayern's attack is led by Harry Kane (28 season goals, 5 assists), Michael Olise (10 goals, 16 assists), and Luis Díaz (13 goals, 10 assists)

门将

In goal for BVB is Gregor Kobel, who has kept 11 clean sheets this season

Jonas Urbig will be between the posts for Bayern, as Manuel Neuer is out with an injury

The Bayern team has a total of 9 clean sheets this season

影响因素

Signal Iduna Park is a fortress for Borussia Dortmund

The team concedes an average of just 0.67 goals per game at home

The last 5 home games have been high-scoring, with an average of 3.6 goals per match

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