Bundesliga
VfB Stuttgart - VfL Wolfsburg
03/01/2026, 02:30 PM
预期进球
2.4
3.7
1.4
2:1
9%3:1
7%2:2
6%1:2
5%3:0
5%xG 分解
VfB Stuttgart
VfL Wolfsburg
联赛
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
58%
平局
21%
客胜
20%
进球数
Over 1.5
90%
Under 1.5
10%
Over 2.5
72%
Under 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
51%
Under 3.5
49%
双重机会
主胜或平局
80%
客胜或平局
42%
非平局
79%
双方进球
是
69%
否
31%
关键因素
- Massively weakened Wolfsburg: The visitors are missing key players, leaving only 45% of their usual goal threat from this season available
- Clear matchup imbalance: Stuttgart's strong attack (averaging 1.91 goals) meets Wolfsburg's extremely vulnerable away defense (2.3 goals conceded per game)
- Wolfsburg's form crisis: The visitors have lost four of their last five matches, showing disastrous form
风险因素
- Short recovery time: VfB Stuttgart has had only three days of rest since their last competitive match
- Wolfsburg's lack of attacking power: The visitors are averaging only 1.2 goals in recent games, significantly below their season average of 1.4
- Limited data on expected goals (xG) for Stuttgart in recent matches
概述
VfB Stuttgart (4th place, 43 points) host VfL Wolfsburg (17th place, 20 points) at the MHPArena
Bundesliga match on March 1, 2026, 3:30 PM
The signs are clear: Stuttgart is fighting for Champions League spots, while Wolfsburg is deep in a relegation battle
The mathematical analysis favors Stuttgart with a 58% probability of winning
近期状态
VfB Stuttgart's form is mixed with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses from their last five matches (Form: LWWDL)
VfL Wolfsburg is in a major crisis with four losses and only one draw in their last five games (Form: LLLDL)
The form curve thus clearly favors the home team
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
统计数据
Stuttgart's attack is a strength, averaging 1.91 goals per game
Wolfsburg's defense, on the other hand, is very vulnerable with 2.13 goals conceded per game, and even 2.3 away from home
Both teams scored in 18 of VfL Wolfsburg's 23 matches
Stuttgart's games have also seen over 2.5 goals in 17 of 23 fixtures, which has a calculated probability of 72% according to the model
历史交锋
In the last 5 direct duels, VfB Stuttgart dominated with 3 wins to Wolfsburg's one, with one draw
The goal difference of 12:7 also clearly speaks for Stuttgart
The last encounter ended in a decisive 3-0 victory for VfB
关键球员
Deniz Undav is VfB Stuttgart's top scorer with 13 season goals and 4 assists
Ermedin Demirovic is in strong form with 4 goals in his last four appearances
Maximilian Mittelstädt is also very dangerous as a defender with 4 goals and 3 assists
Mohamed Amoura is VfL Wolfsburg's top scorer with 8 season goals
Christian Eriksen has set up 5 goals from midfield
Saûl Kumbedi has also contributed 5 assists as a defender
门将
Alexander Nübel of VfB Stuttgart has already kept 8 clean sheets this season
Kamil Grabara in goal for VfL Wolfsburg has managed only one clean sheet this season so far
Statistically, Nübel has the better numbers here
影响因素
VfB Stuttgart is strong at home, scoring an average of 1.89 goals while conceding only 1.33
On average, 2.6 goals are scored per game at the MHPArena
Both teams have scored in 3 of the last 5 home games, which points to a high-scoring match