🇩🇪

Bundesliga

VfL Wolfsburg - Hamburger SV

03/07/2026, 02:30 PM

1 : 2
预期进球
VfL Wolfsburg
1.3
Total xG
2.8
Hamburger SV
1.5
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

0:2

7%

2:2

6%
xG 分解
VWHS

VfL Wolfsburg

防守不足 (场均失2.2球 vs 联赛平均1.8球)
+0.45
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1球)
-0.11
状态下滑 (1 vs 1.4 赛季平均)
-0.11
排名劣势 (第17位 vs 第11位, 相差6位)
-0.08
Lovro Majer未进大名单 (2球, 3助攻)
Maximilian Arnold未进大名单 (1球, 4助攻)

Hamburger SV

防守实力 (场均失1.8球 vs 联赛平均1.4球)
+0.34
进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.73倍)
+0.12
排名优势 (第11位 vs 第17位, 相差6位)
+0.04
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.4球)
+0.03
Nicolás Capaldo未进大名单 (1球, 1助攻)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均3.2球)
+0.67
+0.67
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

30%

平局

28%

客胜

41%

进球数

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

双重机会

主胜或平局

59%

客胜或平局

70%

非平局

72%

双方进球

57%

43%

关键因素
  • The mathematical analysis predicts an away win for Hamburger SV with 41% probability, while VfL Wolfsburg's home win probability is 30%
  • VfL Wolfsburg's current form is negative with 0 wins in 5 games, while Hamburger SV has achieved 2 wins in their last 5 games
  • The Volkswagen Arena is known for many goals (avg. 4.0 goals per game), combined with HSV's high away goals conceded rate (3.17 goals) and Wolfsburg's home goals conceded rate (1.86 goals)
风险因素
  • Hamburger SV has only 3 days of recovery time after their last match
  • VfL Wolfsburg's goal production is currently stagnant with 1.0 goals per game, while the season average is 1.4 goals
  • The home team VfL Wolfsburg concedes an average of 1.86 goals per home game
概述

VfL Wolfsburg (17th place, 20 points) host Hamburger SV (11th place, 26 points) at the Volkswagen Arena. The Bundesliga match takes place on March 7, 2026, 3:30 PM. Wolfsburg is fighting for crucial points in the relegation battle, while Hamburg aims to consolidate their mid-table position

近期状态

Home team VfL Wolfsburg is in a difficult phase with form LLDLL (0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses) from the last five games and two consecutive losses. Goal production is currently stagnant (1.0 goals), while the season average is 1.4 goals. Hamburger SV shows form WWDLL (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses) and also has two consecutive losses. The team scores consistently with about 1.4 goals per game

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

VfL Wolfsburg scores an average of 1.38 goals and concedes 2.21 goals per season. In home games, the average is 1.36 goals scored and 1.86 goals conceded. Wolfsburg has only achieved 1 clean sheet so far, none at home. Both teams scored in 18 of 24 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 17 matches. Hamburger SV scores an average of 1.08 goals and concedes 1.46 goals per game. Away, the average is 1.17 goals scored and a high 3.17 goals conceded. Hamburg has achieved 6 clean sheets, 4 of them away. In the Volkswagen Arena, an average of 4.0 goals per game were scored in the last 5 matches, and both teams scored in all 5 games

历史交锋

In the previous 5 head-to-head matches, there were 2 wins for each team and 1 draw. The goal difference is slightly in favor of Hamburger SV at 4:5. VfL Wolfsburg won the last encounter in October 2025 with a score of 1:0. The historical record is even

关键球员

For VfL Wolfsburg, Mohamed Amoura (8 goals, 3 assists) shows a declining form. Christian Eriksen (1 goal, 5 assists) and Dzenan Pejcinovic (5 goals) maintain stable form. Lovro Majer (2 goals, 3 assists) and Maximilian Arnold (1 goal, 4 assists) are not in the lineup, which reduces the usual starting eleven's strength by 5% of goal threat and 19% of assists. For Hamburger SV, Fábio Vieira (4 goals, 4 assists) and Ransford Königsdörffer (4 goals, 2 assists, 3 goals in last 5 games) show a rising form trend. Nicolás Capaldo (1 goal, 1 assist) is not in the lineup. Luka Vuskovic (4 goals) and Albert Sambi Lokonga (4 goals) maintain stable form

门将

VfL Wolfsburg's goalkeeper, Kamil Grabara, has achieved 1 clean sheet this season. Hamburger SV's goalkeeper, Daniel Heuer Fernandes, has recorded 6 clean sheets this season

影响因素

VfL Wolfsburg has scored an average of 1.36 goals and conceded 1.86 goals in home games. The Volkswagen Arena is known for many goals with an average of 4.0 goals per game, with both teams scoring in all 5 of the last home matches

准备开始了吗?

创建账户,探索数据驱动的足球分析。随时可取消。