Liga Portugal
Arouca - Nacional
02/21/2026, 03:30 PM
预期进球
1.1
2.2
1.1
1:1
15%0:0
13%0:1
11%1:0
11%1:2
7%模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
33%
平局
33%
客胜
34%
进球数
Over 1.5
65%
Under 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
37%
Under 2.5
63%
Over 3.5
17%
Under 3.5
83%
双重机会
主胜或平局
66%
客胜或平局
67%
非平局
67%
双方进球
是
45%
否
55%
关键因素
- Defensive Frailty: Arouca's defense, conceding 2.23 goals per game, is their biggest weakness and a critical factor in this matchup
- Head-to-Head Dominance: Arouca is unbeaten in the last 5 encounters against Nacional (4 wins, 1 draw), which could provide a psychological edge
- Striker Form in Focus: Arouca's striker Ivàn Barbero is in top form with 5 goals in his last 5 games, while Nacional's top scorer Jesús Ramírez has only scored once in the same period
风险因素
- Key Absence for Nacional: Midfielder I. Liziero Pereira (4 season assists) is missing due to suspension, which could impact their creative play
- Arouca's Weak Home Defense: Conceding an average of 2.09 goals per home game, Arouca's defense remains a constant risk for their own team
概述
Arouca (12th place, 23 points) hosts Nacional (14th place, 21 points) at the Estádio Municipal de Arouca
This is a crucial relegation battle in the Liga Portugal on February 21, 2026, 4:30 PM
The mathematical analysis suggests an extremely balanced match, with a 33% probability of a win for Arouca, 33% for a draw, and 34% for Nacional
近期状态
Arouca's form from the last 5 matches: WLWWL
The team has achieved 3 wins and 2 losses in this period
Nacional's form from the last 5 matches: LWLDL
They managed to win only 1 match, with 1 draw and 3 losses
Arouca enters the game with significantly better form
统计数据
Both attacking lines are statistically on par, with Arouca scoring an average of 1.27 goals per game, and Nacional 1.23
The key difference lies in the defense: Arouca concedes an average of 2.23 goals, while Nacional concedes only 1.41
Arouca's defense is particularly vulnerable at home, letting in 2.09 goals per game
The last 5 matches at the Estádio Municipal de Arouca were high-scoring, with an average of 3.4 goals per game
历史交锋
Arouca has clearly dominated the last 5 head-to-head encounters
They won 4 matches, while 1 game ended in a draw, and Nacional could not win any
The goal difference is 8:3 in favor of Arouca
The last meeting was also won by Arouca with a score of 2-1
关键球员
For Arouca, Ivàn Barbero stands out with 5 goals in the last 5 games, flanked by Alfonso Trezza (7 season goals, 3 assists) and Naïfs Djouahra (5 goals, 2 assists)
Nacional's offense is led by top scorer Jesús Ramírez (13 season goals)
Support comes from the goal-scoring defenders Ze Vitor (4 goals) and Léo Santos (3 goals)
门将
In goal for Arouca is Ignacio de Arruabarrena
Kaique will be the goalkeeper for Nacional
Both teams have kept 4 clean sheets so far this season
影响因素
Statistically, Arouca does not have a strong home advantage, mainly due to their vulnerable defense conceding 2.09 goals per home game
The stadium has recently been a venue for high-scoring games, with an average of 3.4 goals in the last five matches
Over 2.5 goals were scored in 80% of these games