Liga Portugal
Porto - Arouca
02/27/2026, 06:45 PM
预期进球
1.4
2.1
0.7
1:0
16%0:0
14%1:1
14%2:0
12%2:1
8%xG 分解
Porto
Arouca
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
52%
平局
31%
客胜
17%
进球数
Over 1.5
63%
Under 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
34%
Under 2.5
66%
Over 3.5
15%
Under 3.5
85%
双重机会
主胜或平局
83%
客胜或平局
48%
非平局
69%
双方进球
是
38%
否
62%
关键因素
- Defensive Superiority: Porto's league-best defense (0.3 goals conceded per game) faces an Arouca side that concedes an average of 2.6 goals in away matches
- Critical Offensive Absences for Porto: The home team is severely hampered, with only 48% of their seasonal goal production available due to the absence of key attackers like Samu Aghehowa (13 goals)
- Head-to-Head Dominance: Porto has a clear historical advantage, having won the last encounter 4-0 and outscoring Arouca 13-4 in the last five meetings
风险因素
- Arouca's Attacking Surge: The visitors are in strong goal-scoring form, with a recent average of 2.4 goals per game, significantly higher than their season average of 1.4
- Porto's Recent Goal Drought: The league leaders' attack has been underperforming lately, dropping to an average of 1.4 goals per game from their season average of 1.9
概述
League leaders Porto (1st place, 62 points) host Arouca (11th place, 26 points) at the Estádio Do Dragão
This Liga Portugal match takes place on February 27, 2026, 6:45 PM
Porto aims to solidify their top position, while Arouca looks to climb in the mid-table
The mathematical model gives the home team a 52% probability of winning
近期状态
Porto's form across all competitions is WLDWW
In their last five matches, they have recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss
They are currently on a two-game winning streak
Arouca's form is LWWLW
They have also secured 3 wins but suffered 2 losses in their last five outings
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
统计数据
Porto boasts the league's best defense, conceding an average of only 0.3 goals per game, and keeping 17 clean sheets in 23 matches
Their attack is also strong, with an average of 1.91 goals scored per game
Arouca's defense is a major concern, especially away from home where they concede an average of 2.6 goals per game
Their attack, however, is respectable with an average of 1.35 goals scored per match
历史交锋
In the last five meetings, Porto has been dominant with 3 wins, while Arouca has won once, and one match ended in a draw
The goal difference clearly favors Porto, who have scored 13 goals compared to Arouca's 4
The most recent encounter was a convincing 4-0 victory for Porto
关键球员
For Porto, defender Jan Bednarek has been a rock with a season rating of 7.24, alongside creative attacker Pepê (2 goals, 4 assists)
Arouca's main threats are Alfonso Trezza, the team's top scorer with 8 goals, and the in-form Iván Barbero, who has scored 4 goals in his last 4 appearances
Naïs Djouahra has also contributed with 5 goals and 2 assists
门将
Porto's Diogo Costa has had an exceptional season, securing 17 clean sheets in 23 league matches
Arouca will rely on Ignacio de Arruabarrena in goal, who has played in 6 matches this season
影响因素
The Estádio Do Dragão is a fortress for Porto, where they score an average of 1.91 goals and concede just 0.27 per game
Arouca's away form is poor, with an average of 2.6 goals conceded on their travels
This stark contrast highlights a significant home advantage for Porto