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Liga Portugal

Porto - Arouca

02/27/2026, 06:45 PM

3 : 1
预期进球
Porto
1.4
Total xG
2.1
Arouca
0.7
最可能的比分

1:0

16%

0:0

14%

1:1

14%

2:0

12%

2:1

8%
xG 分解
PORARO

Porto

最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1.4球)
-0.15
状态下滑 (1.4 vs 1.9 赛季平均)
-0.15
排名优势 (第1位 vs 第11位, 相差10位)
+0.07
Samu Aghehowa未进首发 (0球, 0助攻)
Borja Sainz未进首发 (0球, 0助攻)
52%进球产出缺失 (仅47%可用)
防守实力 (场均失0.5球 vs 联赛平均1.5球)

Arouca

最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均2.4球)
+0.30
状态上升 (2.4 vs 1.4 赛季平均)
+0.30
排名劣势 (第11位 vs 第1位, 相差10位)
-0.07
Hyun-ju Lee未进首发 (0球, 0助攻)
防守实力 (场均失2.2球 vs 联赛平均1.2球)
客场表现不佳 (场均0.8球 vs 总体1.4球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

52%

平局

31%

客胜

17%

进球数

Over 1.5

63%

Under 1.5

37%

Over 2.5

34%

Under 2.5

66%

Over 3.5

15%

Under 3.5

85%

双重机会

主胜或平局

83%

客胜或平局

48%

非平局

69%

双方进球

38%

62%

关键因素
  • Defensive Superiority: Porto's league-best defense (0.3 goals conceded per game) faces an Arouca side that concedes an average of 2.6 goals in away matches
  • Critical Offensive Absences for Porto: The home team is severely hampered, with only 48% of their seasonal goal production available due to the absence of key attackers like Samu Aghehowa (13 goals)
  • Head-to-Head Dominance: Porto has a clear historical advantage, having won the last encounter 4-0 and outscoring Arouca 13-4 in the last five meetings
风险因素
  • Arouca's Attacking Surge: The visitors are in strong goal-scoring form, with a recent average of 2.4 goals per game, significantly higher than their season average of 1.4
  • Porto's Recent Goal Drought: The league leaders' attack has been underperforming lately, dropping to an average of 1.4 goals per game from their season average of 1.9
概述

League leaders Porto (1st place, 62 points) host Arouca (11th place, 26 points) at the Estádio Do Dragão

This Liga Portugal match takes place on February 27, 2026, 6:45 PM

Porto aims to solidify their top position, while Arouca looks to climb in the mid-table

The mathematical model gives the home team a 52% probability of winning

近期状态

Porto's form across all competitions is WLDWW

In their last five matches, they have recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

They are currently on a two-game winning streak

Arouca's form is LWWLW

They have also secured 3 wins but suffered 2 losses in their last five outings

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

统计数据

Porto boasts the league's best defense, conceding an average of only 0.3 goals per game, and keeping 17 clean sheets in 23 matches

Their attack is also strong, with an average of 1.91 goals scored per game

Arouca's defense is a major concern, especially away from home where they concede an average of 2.6 goals per game

Their attack, however, is respectable with an average of 1.35 goals scored per match

历史交锋

In the last five meetings, Porto has been dominant with 3 wins, while Arouca has won once, and one match ended in a draw

The goal difference clearly favors Porto, who have scored 13 goals compared to Arouca's 4

The most recent encounter was a convincing 4-0 victory for Porto

关键球员

For Porto, defender Jan Bednarek has been a rock with a season rating of 7.24, alongside creative attacker Pepê (2 goals, 4 assists)

Arouca's main threats are Alfonso Trezza, the team's top scorer with 8 goals, and the in-form Iván Barbero, who has scored 4 goals in his last 4 appearances

Naïs Djouahra has also contributed with 5 goals and 2 assists

门将

Porto's Diogo Costa has had an exceptional season, securing 17 clean sheets in 23 league matches

Arouca will rely on Ignacio de Arruabarrena in goal, who has played in 6 matches this season

影响因素

The Estádio Do Dragão is a fortress for Porto, where they score an average of 1.91 goals and concede just 0.27 per game

Arouca's away form is poor, with an average of 2.6 goals conceded on their travels

This stark contrast highlights a significant home advantage for Porto

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