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Liga Portugal

Nacional - Sporting Braga

02/28/2026, 06:00 PM

1 : 2
预期进球
Nacional
0.8
Total xG
2.8
Sporting Braga
2.0
最可能的比分

0:2

12%

1:1

11%

1:2

10%

0:3

8%

1:3

6%
xG 分解
NACSB

Nacional

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.62倍)
-0.94
排名劣势 (第14位 vs 第4位, 相差10位)
-0.09
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1球)
-0.07
防守不足 (场均失1.6球 vs 联赛平均1.5球)
+0.02
José Gomes未进首发 (0球, 0助攻)
Ze Vitor未进首发 (0球, 0助攻)

Sporting Braga

进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.38倍)
+0.95
防守实力 (场均失0.9球 vs 联赛平均1.2球)
-0.33
状态上升 (2.8 vs 2 赛季平均)
+0.23
最近5场中3场零封
-0.15
排名优势 (第4位 vs 第14位, 相差10位)
+0.09
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均2.2球)
+0.07
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

14%

平局

24%

客胜

62%

进球数

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

53%

Under 2.5

47%

Over 3.5

31%

Under 3.5

69%

双重机会

主胜或平局

38%

客胜或平局

86%

非平局

76%

双方进球

50%

50%

关键因素
  • Superiority in Standings and Form: Sporting Braga (4th) is far ahead of Nacional (14th) and shows significantly better form with 3 wins in the last 5 games
  • Offensive Firepower: Braga has one of the league's best attacks (avg. 2.09 goals/game), recently increasing to 2.8, while Nacional has been scoreless in 3 of the last 4 matches
  • Clear Signal from Models: The computational analysis strongly favors Braga with a 62% win probability and projects almost 2 goals for the visitors
风险因素
  • Surprise in the last encounter: Although Braga dominates the historical record, Nacional surprisingly won the most recent head-to-head meeting 1-0
  • Braga's away defense: Sporting Braga concedes an average of 1.18 goals per away game, making them more vulnerable on the road than at home (0.75)
概述

Nacional (14th place, 21 points) hosts Sporting Braga (4th place, 42 points) at the Estádio da Madeira

A Liga Portugal match on February 28, 2026, 6:00 PM

The home team is fighting for crucial points in the relegation battle, while Braga aims to solidify their position at the top

近期状态

Nacional's form in the last five games: W-L-D-L-L

The team managed only one win, with three losses and one draw

They are currently on a two-game losing streak and failed to score in three of their last four matches

Sporting Braga's form in the last five games: D-W-W-L-W

The visitors are in good shape with three wins, one draw, and only one loss

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

统计数据

Sporting Braga has one of the best offenses in the league, averaging 2.09 goals per game, while Nacional averages 1.17

Defensively, Braga is also much more solid with only 0.96 goals conceded per game compared to Nacional's 1.48

Braga is particularly dangerous away from home, scoring an average of 2.09 goals per game

In 16 of Braga's 23 matches, there have been over 2.5 goals

历史交锋

In the last five head-to-head encounters, Sporting Braga has clearly dominated with four wins, while Nacional won only once

The goal difference also favors Braga at 8:3

However, Nacional surprisingly won the last meeting 1-0

关键球员

Jesús Ramírez is Nacional's top scorer with 13 goals this season

In midfield, Liziero has contributed 4 assists

Paulinho Bóia is also a key part of the attack with 2 goals and 2 assists

For Sporting Braga, Ricardo Horta is the standout player with 12 goals and 4 assists

Rodrigo Zalazar also shows his goal-scoring threat with 11 seasonal goals

Pau Víctor has established himself as an important offensive player with 6 goals and 3 assists

门将

Nacional's goalkeeper is Kaique; with his participation, the team has achieved 4 clean sheets this season

Lukas Hornicek of Sporting Braga has been involved in 9 clean sheets, giving him a statistically better record

影响因素

Nacional does not have a standout home record, scoring 1.14 and conceding 1.29 goals per home game

The last five matches at the Estádio da Madeira have been high-scoring, with an average of 3.0 goals per game

In three of these five matches, there were over 2.5 goals

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