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Liga Portugal

Santa Clara - Vitória Guimarães

03/08/2026, 08:30 PM

2 : 0
预期进球
Santa Clara
0.9
Total xG
2.3
Vitória Guimarães
1.4
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

0:1

13%

0:0

12%

0:2

10%

1:2

9%
xG 分解
SCVG

Santa Clara

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.51倍)
-0.87
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
+0.09
状态上升 (1.2 vs 0.9 赛季平均)
+0.09
排名劣势 (第16位 vs 第9位, 相差7位)
-0.07
Vinícius Lopes未进大名单 (5球, 1助攻)
40%进球产出缺失 (仅66%可用)

Vitória Guimarães

防守实力 (场均失1.6球 vs 联赛平均1.2球)
+0.37
进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.25倍)
+0.27
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.6球)
+0.10
状态上升 (1.6 vs 1.3 赛季平均)
+0.10
排名优势 (第9位 vs 第16位, 相差7位)
+0.05
Oumar Camara替补席 (4球, 1助攻)
Gustavo Silva替补席 (2球, 1助攻)
Nélson Oliveira替补席 (3球, 0助攻)
15%进球产出缺失 (仅91%可用)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

21%

平局

30%

客胜

49%

进球数

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

双重机会

主胜或平局

51%

客胜或平局

79%

非平局

70%

双方进球

45%

55%

关键因素
  • Pipeline's favoritism: Vitória Guimarães has a 49% win probability, Santa Clara only 21%
  • Form and table: Vitória Guimarães is in 9th place, Santa Clara in 16th with 0 wins in their last 5 games
  • Historical dominance: Vitória Guimarães won 4 out of 5 direct encounters
风险因素
  • Squad impact: Santa Clara has only 67% of usual starting XI goal threat without Vinícius Lopes (5G/1A)
  • Away weakness: Vitória Guimarães concedes an average of 2.11 goals per away game
  • Offensive efficiency: Santa Clara has an average of only 3.4 shots on target
概述

Santa Clara (16th place, 19 points) hosts Vitória Guimarães (9th place, 32 points) at the Estádio de São Miguel. The Liga Portugal match takes place on March 8, 2026, at 9:30 PM. Vitória Guimarães is considered the favorite according to mathematical analysis with a 49% win probability, while Santa Clara has a 21% win probability and a draw is rated at 30%. Santa Clara needs crucial points in the relegation battle, while Vitória Guimarães aims to consolidate its position in the upper mid-table.

近期状态

Santa Clara's form in the last five Liga Portugal matches was LLLDD. The home team recorded 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses. Their last match ended in a draw, as did the one before. Vitória Guimarães' form in their last five matches was WLWLD. The away team achieved 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. Vitória Guimarães' last encounter ended in a draw. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Santa Clara has scored an average of 0.83 goals per game this season and conceded 1.29 goals per game. At home, the average was 0.83 goals scored and 1.17 goals conceded per game. The team kept 5 clean sheets. Vitória Guimarães scored an average of 1.17 goals and conceded 1.46 goals per game. Away, the average was 1.11 goals scored and 2.11 goals conceded per game. They kept 7 clean sheets. At the venue, Estádio de São Miguel, an average of 2.2 total goals were scored per game, and in 2 of 5 matches, both teams scored, while in 2 of 5 matches, over 2.5 goals were scored.

历史交锋

In the 5 previous Liga Portugal head-to-head matches, Santa Clara secured 1 win and Vitória Guimarães claimed 4 wins. There have been 0 draws between the two teams. Santa Clara scored a total of 3 goals, while Vitória Guimarães scored 8 goals. The last encounter on October 4, 2025, ended in a 1:2 away win for Vitória Guimarães. Vitória Guimarães has been more dominant in recent direct duels.

关键球员

For Santa Clara, Serginho with 4 goals and 2 assists, and Gabriel Silva with 3 goals, are the top scorers this season. Luis Fernando has contributed 1 goal. For Vitória Guimarães, Samu with 4 goals and 2 assists, and Noah Jose Saviolo with 2 goals and 3 assists, are important offensive players. A. Ndoye has 2 goals and 1 assist this season.

门将

Santa Clara's goalkeeper, Gabriel Batista, played in 24 games and recorded 5 clean sheets. Charles, the goalkeeper for Vitória Guimarães, played in 9 games and achieved 7 clean sheets.

影响因素

The home team Santa Clara scores an average of 0.83 goals per home game and concedes 1.17 goals. The away team Vitória Guimarães scores an average of 1.11 goals per away game and concedes 2.11 goals. The Estádio de São Miguel recorded an average of 2.2 total goals per match over 5 games. Both teams scored in 2 of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 of 5 matches.

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