Liga Portugal
Moreirense - Nacional
03/07/2026, 03:30 PM
预期进球
0.9
1.8
1.0
0:0
18%1:1
15%0:1
13%1:0
12%0:2
7%xG 分解
Moreirense
Nacional
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
30%
平局
36%
客胜
34%
进球数
Over 1.5
57%
Under 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
28%
Under 2.5
72%
Over 3.5
12%
Under 3.5
88%
双重机会
主胜或平局
66%
客胜或平局
70%
非平局
64%
双方进球
是
38%
否
62%
关键因素
- Pipeline prediction: The model forecasts a high probability of a draw at 36%, with win chances at 30% for Moreirense and 34% for Nacional
- Form disparity: Nacional is in a crisis with 1 draw and 4 losses in their last 5 games, while Moreirense is slightly better with 1 win and 1 draw
- Offensive weakness: Both teams show a negative form trend in goal production; Moreirense is currently at 0.8 goals compared to a 1.3 season average, and Nacional at 0.5 compared to 1.2
风险因素
- Low scoring potential: The model predicts a low probability for over 2.5 goals (28%) and for both teams to score (38%)
- Persistent offensive weakness: Moreirense's goal production is stagnant (0.8), while the season average is 1.3. Nacional's goal production is stagnant (0.5), while the season average is 1.2.
概述
Moreirense (7th place, 34 points) host Nacional (14th place, 21 points) at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas. The Liga Portugal match is on March 7, 2026, 4:30 PM. Moreirense aims for a higher league position, while Nacional is fighting against relegation.
近期状态
Moreirense's form in the last five matches is LLWLD, representing one win, one draw, and three losses. Their last game resulted in a draw. Nacional shows a form of LDLLL, with one draw and four losses, and they lost their last encounter. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.
统计数据
Moreirense averages 1.25 goals scored and 1.42 goals conceded per game this season. At home, these figures are 1.25 goals scored and 1.33 goals conceded. Nacional averages 1.17 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Away from home, Nacional concedes an average of 1.78 goals per game. The Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas stadium has an average of 2.4 total goals per game, with both teams scoring in 1 of 5 matches and over 2.5 goals occurring in 3 of 5 matches.
历史交锋
In the five direct confrontations, Nacional secured two wins, Moreirense one, and there were two draws. Nacional won the last match on October 4, 2025, with a 3-2 score. Overall, Nacional scored 7 goals, while Moreirense scored 6.
关键球员
For Moreirense, key players include Alan de Souza Guimarães (3 goals, 5 assists, average rating 7.02), Travassos (4 goals, 2 assists, average rating 6.90), and Jóbson de Brito Gonzaga (3 goals, average rating 6.87). For Nacional, Jesús Ramírez (13 goals, average rating 7.24), Ze Vitor (4 goals, 1 assist, average rating 6.89), and Liziero (4 assists, average rating 7.04) are noteworthy.
门将
André Ferreira is Moreirense's goalkeeper, playing 15 season appearances with an average rating of 6.80. The team achieved 7 clean sheets. Nacional's goalkeeper is Kaique, who played 18 matches with an average rating of 6.95. Nacional managed 4 clean sheets.
影响因素
Moreirense has scored 1.25 goals and conceded 1.33 goals in home games, suggesting a home advantage. Nacional concedes an average of 1.78 goals per away game. The Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas stadium has seen an average of 2.4 total goals per game in the last five matches. Both teams scored in 1 of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 of 5 games.