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Liga Portugal

Casa Pia - Sporting Braga

04/23/2026, 06:00 PM

0 : 1
预期进球
Casa Pia
0.8
Total xG
2.5
Sporting Braga
1.7
最可能的比分

1:1

13%

0:2

12%

1:2

10%

0:3

7%

1:3

5%
xG 分解
CPSB

Casa Pia

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.64倍)
-0.84
最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.4球)
-0.22
状态下滑 (0.7 vs 1.1 赛季平均)
-0.14
排名劣势 (第16位 vs 第4位, 相差12位)
-0.11
Cassiano替补席 (5球, 0助攻)
Rafael Brito替补席 (2球, 1助攻)
35%进球产出缺失 (仅75%可用)

Sporting Braga

进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.31倍)
+0.59
防守实力 (场均失0.9球 vs 联赛平均1.2球)
-0.26
排名优势 (第4位 vs 第16位, 相差12位)
+0.10
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.8球)
-0.07
Fran Navarro替补席 (6球, 1助攻)
Vítor Carvalho替补席 (2球, 1助攻)
Florian Grillitsch替补席 (1球, 1助攻)
12%进球产出缺失 (仅88%可用)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

16%

平局

27%

客胜

58%

进球数

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

双重机会

主胜或平局

42%

客胜或平局

84%

非平局

74%

双方进球

47%

53%

关键因素
  • Sporting Braga is the favorite for an away win with a 58% probability according to mathematical analysis
  • Braga's strong away record with an average of 2.00 goals per game meets Casa Pia's low home scoring of 0.94 goals
  • Casa Pia is missing players accounting for 25% of their usual starting XI goal threat (Cassiano, Rafael Brito), while Braga is missing only 11%
风险因素
  • Casa Pia averaged 2.8 shots on target in their last 5 games, indicating difficulty in creating scoring opportunities
  • Casa Pia's recent goal production has stagnated at 0.7 goals per game, compared to a season average of 1.1 goals
  • Sporting Braga's recent goal production has stagnated at 1.8 goals per game, compared to a season average of 2.1 goals
概述

Casa Pia (16th place, 26 points) host Sporting Braga (4th place, 53 points) at Estádio Pina Manique. The Liga Portugal match takes place on April 23, 2026, 8:00 PM. While Braga is fighting for European spots, Casa Pia is trying to avoid relegation.

近期状态

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Casa Pia's form across all competitions: DLDLD

They achieved 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses in their last 5 matches

The last match result was a draw

Sporting Braga's form across all competitions: WDWWD

They achieved 3 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses in their last 5 matches

The last match result was a draw

统计数据

Casa Pia averages 0.94 goals scored and 1.28 goals conceded in home games

Sporting Braga averages 2.00 goals scored and 1.08 goals conceded in away games

The Estádio Pina Manique has seen an average of 2.4 goals per game in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 of these matches, while 2 out of 5 matches had over 2.5 goals

历史交锋

In 5 head-to-head matches, Casa Pia secured 2 wins and Sporting Braga secured 3 wins

Casa Pia scored a total of 8 goals, while Sporting Braga scored 13 goals

The last encounter on October 26, 2025, ended in a 0:4 defeat for Casa Pia, with Sporting Braga winning away

Sporting Braga has been dominant in recent head-to-head matches

关键球员

For Casa Pia, Jérémy Livolant is a key attacker with 3 season goals and 8 assists, holding an average rating of 7.05

Gaizka Larrazabal is a strong defender with 3 goals and 4 assists and a rating of 6.77

David Sousa, also in defense, contributed 2 season goals and has a rating of 6.75

For Sporting Braga, Ricardo Horta stands out with 14 season goals and 4 assists, although his current form is declining (avg 7.05)

Pau Víctor scored 7 season goals and 4 assists, maintaining stable form with a current rating of 6.98

Defender Vítor Gómez provided 1 goal and 3 assists and shows stable form with a rating of 6.89

门将

Casa Pia's goalkeeper, Patrick Sequeira, kept 6 clean sheets this season

Sporting Braga's goalkeeper Lukas Hornicek recorded 11 clean sheets this season

影响因素

Casa Pia's home games at Estádio Pina Manique average 2.4 goals per game

Both teams scored in 80% of the last 5 home matches

2 out of the last 5 home matches had over 2.5 goals

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