Liga Portugal
Nacional - Estoril
03/15/2026, 03:30 PM
预期进球
1.2
2.5
1.3
1:1
15%0:0
10%0:1
9%1:2
8%1:0
8%xG 分解
Nacional
Estoril
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
32%
平局
30%
客胜
38%
进球数
Over 1.5
72%
Under 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
45%
Under 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
24%
Under 3.5
76%
双重机会
主胜或平局
62%
客胜或平局
68%
非平局
70%
双方进球
是
52%
否
48%
关键因素
- The mathematical analysis sees Estoril as slight favorites with a 38% win probability and 1.30 predicted goals
- Nacional is in a negative run of form, with 0 wins and 3 losses from their last 5 games
- Estoril is in 8th place (34 points) in the Liga Portugal, while Nacional is in 15th place (22 points), reflecting a significant performance difference this season
风险因素
- Liziero is missing for Nacional, impacting assists as only 58% of seasonal assists come from the active lineup
- Estoril concedes an average of 2.27 goals per away game, making their defense vulnerable
- The high draw probability of 31% according to the model suggests a potential sharing of points
概述
Nacional (15th place, 22 points) host Estoril (8th place, 34 points) at Estádio da Madeira
Liga Portugal match on March 15, 2026, 4:30 PM
Nacional is fighting for league survival, while Estoril aims to consolidate its mid-table position
近期状态
Nacional has achieved 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses from their last five games across all competitions (DLLLD)
Their last result was a draw
Estoril recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last five games (DLWLD)
Their last match also ended in a draw
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Nacional's goal production is currently stagnating (0.5 goals), while the season average is 1.2 goals, indicating a negative form trend
Estoril's goal production is also stagnating (1.3 goals currently), compared to a season average of 1.9 goals, also a negative form trend
统计数据
Nacional scores an average of 1.16 goals per game and concedes 1.48 goals per game
At home, the average is 1.13 goals scored and 1.33 goals conceded
Estoril shows stronger offense with an average of 1.84 goals per game, while conceding 1.68 goals per game
Away from home, Estoril averages 1.82 goals scored and 2.27 goals conceded
At Estádio da Madeira, an average of 2.8 goals per game are scored
Both teams score in 40% of games at the stadium, and over 2.5 goals are scored in 60% of games
历史交锋
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nacional secured 1 win, Estoril 2 wins, and there were 2 draws
Nacional scored 4 goals and conceded 5 goals in these encounters
The last meeting on October 26, 2025, ended in a 1:1 draw
Estoril has been the more dominant team in recent meetings
关键球员
For Nacional, Jesús Ramírez is a key goal scorer with 13 season goals, his rating is 7.2 and his form is declining
Paulinho Bóia contributed 3 goals and 2 assists, with an average rating of 6.94 and stable form
Ze Vitor showed offensive strength with 4 goals and 1 assist, with a rating of 6.92 and rising form
For Estoril, Yanis Begraoui is the top scorer with 17 goals and 1 assist, his rating is 7.12, but his form is declining
João Carvalho is an important playmaker with 6 goals and 10 assists and an average rating of 7.28, his form is declining
Jordan Holsgrove has 1 goal and 6 assists with a rating of 7.23 and stable form
门将
Nacional's goalkeeper Kaique has played 19 games and has a season average rating of 6.93
He kept 4 clean sheets
Joel Robles of Estoril played in 25 matches, with an average rating of 6.68 and also 4 clean sheets
影响因素
Nacional's home strength is evident with an average of 1.13 goals scored and 1.33 goals conceded per home game
Estoril scores an average of 1.82 away goals and concedes 2.27 away goals
Estádio da Madeira records an average of 2.8 goals per game
Both teams score in 40% of the matches at the stadium, and 60% of the games end with over 2.5 goals