Liga Portugal
Sporting Braga - Arouca
04/12/2026, 05:00 PM
预期进球
1.6
2.4
0.8
1:1
13%1:0
13%2:0
12%0:0
11%2:1
9%xG 分解
Sporting Braga
Arouca
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
55%
平局
28%
客胜
17%
进球数
Over 1.5
71%
Under 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
43%
Under 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
22%
Under 3.5
78%
双重机会
主胜或平局
83%
客胜或平局
45%
非平局
72%
双方进球
是
45%
否
55%
关键因素
- Braga's win probability of 55% according to mathematical analysis
- Braga's home strength: averaging 2.0 goals scored and only 0.93 goals conceded at home
- Braga's clear dominance in head-to-head matches with four wins in five games
风险因素
- Braga's limited starting XI strength: Rodrigo Zalazar (15G/4A), Pau Víctor (6G/4A), Gabri Martínez (0G/3A), Gustaf Lagerbielke (2G/0A), and Florian Grillitsch (1G/1A) are not in the lineup, reducing the usual goal threat by 32%.
- Arouca's away defense concedes an average of 2.5 goals per away game.
- Arouca's tactical approach averaged only 3.4 shots on target in the last 5 games.
概述
Sporting Braga (4th place, 49 points) host Arouca (12th place, 32 points) at the Estádio Municipal de Braga. Liga Portugal match on April 12, 2026, 6:00 PM. Braga is fighting for a European spot, while Arouca is in the mid-table.
近期状态
Braga's form in the last five games is a mixed LWLWD, consisting of two wins, one draw, and two losses. Their most recent result was a 1-1 draw against Real Betis. Arouca shows a form of LLLWW, with two wins and three losses in their last five matches. Arouca has won their last two games, including a 3-2 victory over Estoril.
统计数据
Sporting Braga averages 2.0 goals per home game and concedes 0.93 goals, with five clean sheets at home. Arouca averaged 1.33 goals scored away and conceded 2.5 goals, achieving four clean sheets in away games. The Estádio Municipal de Braga has seen an average of 3.6 total goals per game in the last five matches. Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 games, and 4 out of 5 games had over 2.5 goals.
历史交锋
In five head-to-head matches, Sporting Braga has a clear advantage over Arouca with four wins. Arouca has managed only one victory, and there have been no draws. The goal difference stands at 9:5 in favor of Braga. The last encounter on December 1, 2025, ended in a 4-0 win for Braga.
关键球员
For Sporting Braga, Ricardo Horta (13 season goals, 4 assists) and Fran Navarro (5 season goals, 1 goal in last 5 games) are important attackers. Midfielder Vítor Carvalho scored 2 season goals and also netted once in his last 5 matches. Horta's form has been declining recently.
For Arouca, Iván Barbero (7 season goals, 2 assists, declining recent form) and Naïs Djouahra (6 season goals, 3 assists) are crucial in attack. Midfielder Hyun-ju Lee recorded 5 season goals and 3 assists, his form is stable with one goal and one assist in his last 5 games.
门将
Sporting Braga's goalkeeper Lukas Hornicek made 27 season appearances and kept 10 clean sheets overall, five of these at home.
For Arouca, Jakub Vinarcik is expected in goal, but no season data or clean sheets are available for him. Arouca recorded a total of 6 clean sheets this season, with 4 of them in away matches.
影响因素
The Estádio Municipal de Braga shows a high average of 3.6 goals per game. In 80% of matches, both teams scored, and 80% of games had over 2.5 goals. Braga demonstrates a strong offense at home, averaging 2.0 goals, and a solid defense, conceding only 0.93 goals on grass.