Liga Portugal
Estoril - Porto
04/12/2026, 07:30 PM
预期进球
0.9
2.8
1.9
1:1
12%0:2
11%1:2
10%0:3
7%1:3
6%xG 分解
Estoril
Porto
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
17%
平局
25%
客胜
58%
进球数
Over 1.5
78%
Under 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
53%
Under 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
31%
Under 3.5
69%
双重机会
主胜或平局
42%
客胜或平局
83%
非平局
75%
双方进球
是
52%
否
48%
关键因素
- Favoritism: Mathematical analysis predicts a high win probability of 58% for Porto
- Form advantage: Porto is unbeaten in five games and shows stable form, while Estoril suffered two consecutive losses
- Defensive strength: Porto has a clearly superior defense with an average of 0.46 goals conceded per game compared to Estoril's 1.68 goals conceded
风险因素
- Short recovery time: Porto had only 3 days since their last match
- Key absences: Porto is missing important attackers S. Omorodion Aghehowa (13 goals) and L. de Jong (1 goal) due to cruciate ligament injuries
- High-scoring home venue: Estoril's home stadium has averaged 3.4 total goals and an 80% BTTS rate in the last 5 games, suggesting a more open match
概述
Estoril (7th place, 37 points) hosts Porto (1st place, 73 points) at the Estádio António Coimbra da Mota in a Liga Portugal match on April 12, 2026, 8:30 PM. The mathematical analysis identifies Porto as clear favorites with a 58% win probability. Porto is fighting at the top of the table, while Estoril is in the mid-table.
近期状态
Estoril's form in the last five matches is LDWLL, indicating 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses. They have suffered two consecutive losses recently. Porto, on the other hand, is unbeaten in their last five games with a form of WWWDD, comprising 3 wins and 2 draws, with their last two matches being draws. (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
统计数据
Estoril averages 1.79 goals scored and 1.68 goals conceded per game this season. At home, they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.27 goals conceded. Both teams scored in 16 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 19 matches. Porto has a season average of 2.0 goals scored and only 0.46 goals conceded per game. Away from home, they score 2.08 goals and concede 0.54 goals. Both teams scored in 10 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 16 matches. The Estádio António Coimbra da Mota has seen an average of 3.4 total goals in the last 5 games, with an 80% BTTS rate and an 80% Over 2.5 rate.
历史交锋
In 5 direct encounters, Estoril secured 2 victories, while Porto claimed 3 wins, with no draws recorded. The goal difference stands at 3:7 in favor of Porto. The last direct match was won by Porto on November 30, 2025, with a score of 1-0 against Estoril.
关键球员
For Estoril, Yanis Begraoui with 18 goals and 1 assist, João Carvalho with 6 goals and 12 assists, and Jordan Holsgrove with 1 goal and 7 assists are key players. For Porto, Victor Froholdt stands out with 4 goals and 7 assists, Gabri Veiga with 2 goals and 6 assists, and Oskar Pietuszewski with 3 goals and 2 assists. Oskar Pietuszewski has scored 3 goals and provided 1 assist in his last 5 games, while Yanis Begraoui shows a declining form trend.
门将
Estoril's goalkeeper, Joel Robles, managed 5 clean sheets this season. On the opposing side, Porto's Diogo Costa recorded an impressive 18 clean sheets.
影响因素
The Estádio António Coimbra da Mota tends to be a high-scoring venue, averaging 3.4 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 80% of matches and over 2.5 goals in 80% of matches. Estoril scores an average of 1.8 goals at home and concedes 1.27 goals. Porto is defensively very strong away from home, with an average of 2.08 goals scored and only 0.54 goals conceded per game.