Liga Portugal
Nacional - Alverca
04/18/2026, 02:30 PM
预期进球
1.2
2.6
1.4
1:1
14%1:2
9%2:1
8%0:2
7%2:0
6%xG 分解
Nacional
Alverca
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
32%
平局
30%
客胜
38%
进球数
Over 1.5
75%
Under 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
48%
Under 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
26%
Under 3.5
74%
双重机会
主胜或平局
62%
客胜或平局
68%
非平局
70%
双方进球
是
55%
否
45%
关键因素
- Alverca shows a positive form trend and increased goal production of 2.0 goals on average recently compared to their season average of 1.1
- Nacional is struggling with negative form and lower goal production of 0.6 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.1
- The mathematical analysis predicts a 38% win probability for Alverca compared to 32% for Nacional
- Alverca won the only previous head-to-head match
风险因素
- The mathematical analysis predicts a high probability of a draw at 30%
- Nacional must do without Léo Santos (3 goals, 2 assists), who is not in the lineup
- Both teams show defensive vulnerabilities, conceding over 1.4 goals per game on average
- There is only limited historical head-to-head data with just one match
概述
Nacional (15th place, 25 points) host Alverca (10th place, 35 points) at Estádio da Madeira
Liga Portugal match on April 18, 2026, 4:30 PM
Nacional is fighting against relegation, while Alverca is positioned in the middle of the table
近期状态
Nacional shows poor form with DLLWL in their last five matches
This includes a loss as their last result
Overall, Nacional recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last five games
Alverca is in better shape with DDLWW in their last five matches
They have won their last two games and are on a 2-win streak
Alverca's record in the last five games shows 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
统计数据
Nacional averages 1.07 goals scored per game and concedes 1.41 goals
Alverca averages 1.1 goals scored and concedes 1.62 goals per game
In home matches, Nacional scores 1.06 goals and concedes 1.17 goals
Alverca scores 1.13 goals away and concedes 1.73 goals
For Nacional, 15 games ended with both teams scoring and 13 games had over 2.5 goals
For Alverca, there were 17 games with both teams scoring and 16 games with over 2.5 goals
The Estádio da Madeira venue records an average of 1.4 goals per game
Only 1 out of 5 games saw both teams score, and 1 out of 5 games ended with over 2.5 goals at Estádio da Madeira
历史交锋
There has only been 1 head-to-head match between Nacional and Alverca so far
Alverca won this single match away with a score of 1:0 on December 7, 2025
Based on this one match, Alverca has recently shown dominance
关键球员
For Nacional, Jesús Ramírez is a key player with 14 season goals
His form trend has recently been declining
Paulinho Bóia contributed 4 season goals and 2 assists
His form shows a positive trend
Ze Vitor has scored 4 season goals and provided 1 assist
His form is also on the rise
On Alverca's side, Figueiredo is important with 5 season goals and 2 assists
His form trend is currently rising
Lincoln Henrique Oliveira dos Santos shone with 2 season goals and 5 assists
He contributed 2 assists in the last 5 games
Francisco Jorge Tavares Oliveira has delivered 2 season goals and 3 assists
In the last 5 games, he scored 1 goal and provided 2 assists
门将
Kaique is Nacional's goalkeeper with 23 season appearances
Nacional has kept 5 clean sheets this season
Matheus Mendes Werneck de Oliveira made 4 season appearances for Alverca
Alverca has kept 6 clean sheets this season
影响因素
Nacional scores an average of 1.06 goals at home and concedes 1.17 goals
Alverca scores 1.13 goals away and concedes 1.73 goals
Estádio da Madeira is known for an average of 1.4 goals per game
The 'both teams to score' rate is only 20% at this stadium