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Liga Portugal

Nacional - Alverca

04/18/2026, 02:30 PM

1 : 0
预期进球
Nacional
1.2
Total xG
2.6
Alverca
1.4
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

0:2

7%

2:0

6%
xG 分解
NACALV

Nacional

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.71倍)
-0.36
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.6球)
-0.15
状态下滑 (0.6 vs 1.1 赛季平均)
-0.15
Léo Santos未进大名单 (3球, 2助攻)

Alverca

状态上升 (2 vs 1.1 赛季平均)
+0.26
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.6球)
+0.14
10%进球产出缺失 (仅93%可用)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

32%

平局

30%

客胜

38%

进球数

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

48%

Under 2.5

52%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

双重机会

主胜或平局

62%

客胜或平局

68%

非平局

70%

双方进球

55%

45%

关键因素
  • Alverca shows a positive form trend and increased goal production of 2.0 goals on average recently compared to their season average of 1.1
  • Nacional is struggling with negative form and lower goal production of 0.6 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.1
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a 38% win probability for Alverca compared to 32% for Nacional
  • Alverca won the only previous head-to-head match
风险因素
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a high probability of a draw at 30%
  • Nacional must do without Léo Santos (3 goals, 2 assists), who is not in the lineup
  • Both teams show defensive vulnerabilities, conceding over 1.4 goals per game on average
  • There is only limited historical head-to-head data with just one match
概述

Nacional (15th place, 25 points) host Alverca (10th place, 35 points) at Estádio da Madeira

Liga Portugal match on April 18, 2026, 4:30 PM

Nacional is fighting against relegation, while Alverca is positioned in the middle of the table

近期状态

Nacional shows poor form with DLLWL in their last five matches

This includes a loss as their last result

Overall, Nacional recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last five games

Alverca is in better shape with DDLWW in their last five matches

They have won their last two games and are on a 2-win streak

Alverca's record in the last five games shows 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Nacional averages 1.07 goals scored per game and concedes 1.41 goals

Alverca averages 1.1 goals scored and concedes 1.62 goals per game

In home matches, Nacional scores 1.06 goals and concedes 1.17 goals

Alverca scores 1.13 goals away and concedes 1.73 goals

For Nacional, 15 games ended with both teams scoring and 13 games had over 2.5 goals

For Alverca, there were 17 games with both teams scoring and 16 games with over 2.5 goals

The Estádio da Madeira venue records an average of 1.4 goals per game

Only 1 out of 5 games saw both teams score, and 1 out of 5 games ended with over 2.5 goals at Estádio da Madeira

历史交锋

There has only been 1 head-to-head match between Nacional and Alverca so far

Alverca won this single match away with a score of 1:0 on December 7, 2025

Based on this one match, Alverca has recently shown dominance

关键球员

For Nacional, Jesús Ramírez is a key player with 14 season goals

His form trend has recently been declining

Paulinho Bóia contributed 4 season goals and 2 assists

His form shows a positive trend

Ze Vitor has scored 4 season goals and provided 1 assist

His form is also on the rise

On Alverca's side, Figueiredo is important with 5 season goals and 2 assists

His form trend is currently rising

Lincoln Henrique Oliveira dos Santos shone with 2 season goals and 5 assists

He contributed 2 assists in the last 5 games

Francisco Jorge Tavares Oliveira has delivered 2 season goals and 3 assists

In the last 5 games, he scored 1 goal and provided 2 assists

门将

Kaique is Nacional's goalkeeper with 23 season appearances

Nacional has kept 5 clean sheets this season

Matheus Mendes Werneck de Oliveira made 4 season appearances for Alverca

Alverca has kept 6 clean sheets this season

影响因素

Nacional scores an average of 1.06 goals at home and concedes 1.17 goals

Alverca scores 1.13 goals away and concedes 1.73 goals

Estádio da Madeira is known for an average of 1.4 goals per game

The 'both teams to score' rate is only 20% at this stadium

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