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Liga Portugal

Moreirense - Estoril

04/20/2026, 07:15 PM

1 : 0
预期进球
Moreirense
0.9
Total xG
2.3
Estoril
1.4
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

0:1

13%

0:0

12%

0:2

10%

1:2

9%
xG 分解
MOREST

Moreirense

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.37倍)
-0.90
最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.4球)
-0.22
状态下滑 (0.4 vs 1.1 赛季平均)
-0.22
Jóbson de Brito Gonzaga未进大名单 (3球, 0助攻)
Luís Semedo替补席 (2球, 1助攻)
Francisco Miguel Teixeira Domingues未进大名单 (1球, 1助攻)
23%进球产出缺失 (仅86%可用)

Estoril

最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1球)
-0.25
状态下滑 (1.2 vs 1.8 赛季平均)
-0.17
João Carvalho替补席 (6球, 12助攻)
Jordan Holsgrove替补席 (1球, 7助攻)
Ricard Sánchez未进大名单 (2球, 3助攻)
29%进球产出缺失 (仅57%可用)
客场表现不佳 (场均1.2球 vs 总体1.8球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

21%

平局

30%

客胜

49%

进球数

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

双重机会

主胜或平局

51%

客胜或平局

79%

非平局

70%

双方进球

46%

54%

关键因素
  • Mathematical Forecast: The analysis favors Estoril with a 49% win probability
  • Form: Moreirense shows very weak form with 0 wins in their last 5 games
  • Offensive Strength: Estoril is stronger offensively in Liga Portugal with an average of 1.76 goals per game
风险因素
  • Limited Goal Threat for Estoril: Only 58% of the usual starting XI attacking strength is available, without João Carvalho (6G/12A), Jordan Holsgrove (1G/7A), Ricard Sánchez (2G/3A)
  • Moreirense averaged only 1.8 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • Estoril concedes an average of 2.15 goals per away game
概述

Moreirense (9th place, 36 points) host Estoril (8th place, 37 points) at the Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas

Liga Portugal match on April 20, 2026, 8:15 PM

The teams are close in the table and are fighting for a better mid-table position

近期状态

Moreirense's form in the last five games is DLLLD (0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses)

The last match was a 1-1 away draw against Famalicão

Estoril's form in their last five matches is DWLLL (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses)

Their last match ended in a 1-3 loss against Porto

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Moreirense scored an average of 1.1 goals per game this season and conceded 1.41 goals

At home, they scored an average of 1.14 goals and conceded 1.36 goals

Estoril scored an average of 1.76 goals per game and conceded 1.72 goals

Away from home, Estoril scored an average of 1.77 goals and conceded 2.15 goals

At Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, an average of 2.0 goals were scored in the last 5 games

Both teams scored in 2 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 out of 5 games

历史交锋

In 5 head-to-head matches, there have been 3 draws

Moreirense won 2 games and Estoril 0

The goal difference of 12:9 slightly favors Moreirense

The last encounter on December 7, 2025, ended in a 3-3 draw

关键球员

For Moreirense, important players include: Alan de Souza Guimarães (3 goals, 5 assists, Avg. 6.99 rating) who showed a slightly declining form

Travassos (4 goals, 3 assists, Avg. 6.87 rating) is also in a declining form trend

Rodrigo Alonso Martín (3 goals, 2 assists, Avg. 6.65 rating) is in stable form and scored 1 goal in the last 5 games

For Estoril, Yanis Begraoui (19 goals, 1 assist, Avg. 7.09 rating) is a key player with declining form

Ferro (2 goals, 0 assists, Avg. 6.81 rating) recently showed a rising form

Felix Bacher (2 goals, 0 assists, Avg. 6.78 rating) is in stable form

门将

Moreirense is expected to start with André Ferreira in goal, who has an average rating of 6.86 in 20 season appearances

His team recorded 7 clean sheets

For Estoril, Martin Turk is expected in goal, having made 0 season appearances so far

Estoril achieved 5 clean sheets this season

影响因素

Moreirense's home goals stand at an average of 1.14 per game, while conceding an average of 1.36 away goals

At Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, an average of 2.0 goals were scored in the last 5 games

In addition, both teams scored in 40% of the games and over 2.5 goals were scored in 40% of the games

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