Liga Portugal
Gil Vicente - Casa Pia
04/27/2026, 07:15 PM
预期进球
1.4
2.1
0.7
1:0
16%0:0
14%1:1
14%2:0
12%2:1
8%xG 分解
Gil Vicente
Casa Pia
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
52%
平局
31%
客胜
17%
进球数
Over 1.5
64%
Under 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
35%
Under 2.5
65%
Over 3.5
16%
Under 3.5
84%
双重机会
主胜或平局
83%
客胜或平局
48%
非平局
69%
双方进球
是
40%
否
60%
关键因素
- Gil Vicente's home strength (1.47 goals scored, 0.76 goals conceded) meets Casa Pia's away defensive weaknesses (2.42 goals conceded)
- The mathematical analysis clearly favors Gil Vicente with a 52% win probability
- Casa Pia is in a negative run of form with 0 wins and 3 losses in their last 5 games, scoring only 0.5 goals on average
风险因素
- Casa Pia shows significant defensive vulnerability away from home, conceding an average of 2.42 goals per away game
- Casa Pia's goal production has been very low recently, with only 0.5 goals per game in current form
- Pipeline predictions indicate a relatively low probability for over 2.5 goals (35%) and both teams to score (40%)
概述
Gil Vicente (6th place, 46 points) host Casa Pia (16th place, 26 points) at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos in Liga Portugal. The match is scheduled for April 27, 2026, 8:15 PM. Gil Vicente is striving for a better position in the upper mid-table, while Casa Pia needs crucial points in the relegation battle. The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with a 52% probability.
近期状态
Gil Vicente's current form across all competitions is DLWDL, indicating 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last five games. Gil Vicente suffered a loss in their last match. Casa Pia shows weaker form with LDLDL, recording 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses in their last five games. They also lost their most recent match. (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
统计数据
Gil Vicente has scored an average of 1.47 goals per game this season and conceded 1.03 goals. At home, they are defensively stable with an average of 1.47 goals scored and 0.76 goals conceded. Casa Pia is weaker offensively with 0.93 goals per game and a vulnerable defense conceding an average of 1.77 goals. Casa Pia's away defense deteriorates significantly, conceding an average of 2.42 goals per away game. Gil Vicente's goal production has recently stalled (1.4), while the season average is 1.6. Casa Pia's goal production has also stalled (0.5), with a season average of 1.1.
历史交锋
In the 5 direct encounters so far, there has been an even record with 1 win for Gil Vicente, 1 win for Casa Pia, and 3 draws. Gil Vicente scored a total of 4 goals, while Casa Pia scored 3 goals. The last meeting on December 13, 2025, ended in a 1-1 draw.
关键球员
For Gil Vicente, key players include Murilo de Souza Costa with 9 goals and 4 assists this season, midfielder Luís André Leite Esteves with 3 goals and 8 assists, and Santiago García González with 6 goals and 3 assists. For Casa Pia, Jérémy Livolant stands out with 3 goals and 8 assists, followed by Cassiano with 5 season goals and Gaizka Larrazabal with 3 goals and 4 assists.
门将
Daniel Alexis Leite Figueira of Gil Vicente has kept 6 clean sheets in home games this season. Patrick Sequeira of Casa Pia has secured 4 clean sheets in away games.
影响因素
Estádio Cidade de Barcelos sees an average of 2.8 total goals per game. Both teams scored in 3 of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 of 5 games. Gil Vicente shows a solid home performance with an average of 1.47 goals scored and only 0.76 goals conceded per home game. Casa Pia, however, is defensively vulnerable away from home, conceding an average of 2.42 goals per away game.