Liga Portugal
Tondela - Nacional
04/25/2026, 02:30 PM
预期进球
1.5
2.6
1.1
1:1
14%2:1
9%2:0
8%1:2
7%2:2
5%xG 分解
Tondela
Nacional
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
44%
平局
29%
客胜
27%
进球数
Over 1.5
74%
Under 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
47%
Under 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
26%
Under 3.5
74%
双重机会
主胜或平局
73%
客胜或平局
56%
非平局
71%
双方进球
是
53%
否
47%
关键因素
- Mathematical analysis: Tondela is predicted to win with a 44% probability, making them slight home favorites
- Tondela's Offensive Weakness: Tondela's goal production has declined to 0.5 goals per game recently, compared to 0.8 on average for the season
- Nacional's Improved Form: Nacional has won 2 of their last 5 games, including their last match
风险因素
- Tondela's Reduced Goal Threat: Maranhão is missing, reducing the usual starting XI goal threat to 65%
- Low Shots on Target: Tondela averaged only 2.8 shots on target in their last 5 games
- Nacional's Away Defense: Nacional concedes an average of 1.82 goals per away game
概述
Tondela (17th place, 21 points) host Nacional (14th place, 28 points) at Estádio João Cardoso. The Liga Portugal match takes place on April 25, 2026, 4:30 PM. Both teams are battling in the lower half of the table, with Nacional holding a slight lead.
近期状态
Tondela is going through a tough period with a form of LDLDL in their last five matches, which means 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses. Their last game ended in a loss. Nacional's form in their last five outings is LLWLW, with 2 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses. Nacional won their last match. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.
统计数据
Tondela averages 0.72 goals scored per game this season and concedes 1.66 goals. At home, the average is 0.73 goals scored and 1.27 goals conceded. Nacional scores an average of 1.07 goals per match and concedes 1.37 goals. Away from home, Nacional averages 1.09 goals scored and 1.82 goals conceded. At Estádio João Cardoso, the last 5 games averaged 2.2 total goals per match, with both teams scoring in 3 out of 5 games and over 2.5 goals in 2 out of 5 games.
历史交锋
In head-to-head encounters, there has only been one match so far. Nacional won this sole meeting. The last match, on December 15, 2025, ended in a 1:3 away victory for Nacional.
关键球员
For Tondela, Rony Lopes is notable with 2 goals and 2 assists, holding a season average rating of 6.9. Bebeto has scored 2 goals and provided 0 assists, while Joe Hodge has 1 goal and 1 assist this season. For Nacional, Jesús Ramírez stands out with 15 goals and 0 assists with an average rating of 7.2. José Gomes contributes with 1 goal and 5 assists, and Paulinho Bóia has 4 goals and 2 assists.
门将
Bernardo, Tondela's goalkeeper, played in 29 season games and achieved an average rating of 6.93. He kept 5 clean sheets. Kaique, Nacional's goalkeeper, made 24 appearances and has an average rating of 6.97. He kept 6 clean sheets.
影响因素
Tondela's home performance shows an average of 0.73 goals scored and 1.27 goals conceded. At Estádio João Cardoso, an average of 2.2 total goals are scored per game, with both teams scoring in 60% of matches and over 2.5 goals scored in 40% of matches.