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Liga Portugal

Nacional - AVS

05/02/2026, 02:30 PM

1 : 2
预期进球
Nacional
1.2
Total xG
1.9
AVS
0.8
最可能的比分

0:0

16%

1:0

15%

1:1

15%

2:0

10%

0:1

9%
xG 分解
NACAVS

Nacional

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.7倍)
-0.45
最近5场中3场零封
-0.15
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1球)
-0.04
Liziero替补席 (0球, 4助攻)

AVS

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.43倍)
-0.60
状态上升 (1 vs 0.8 赛季平均)
+0.06
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球)
+0.00
Tomané替补席 (4球, 1助攻)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

44%

平局

34%

客胜

22%

进球数

Over 1.5

59%

Under 1.5

41%

Over 2.5

30%

Under 2.5

70%

Over 3.5

13%

Under 3.5

87%

双重机会

主胜或平局

78%

客胜或平局

56%

非平局

66%

双方进球

38%

62%

关键因素
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Nacional with a 44% probability
  • AVS concedes an average of 2.79 goals per away game, indicating significant away weakness
  • Nacional is in positive form with 3 wins in their last 5 matches, including 2 consecutive home wins
风险因素
  • AVS showed resilience in their last 5 games with 4 draws, including 3 consecutively
  • Nacional's recent goal production is stagnating (1.0 goals per game) compared to their season average (1.1 goals)
  • G. Mendonça is missing for AVS due to a yellow card suspension
概述

Nacional (14th place, 31 points) host AVS (18th place, 14 points) at Estádio da Madeira. The Liga Portugal match takes place on May 2, 2026, 4:30 PM. Nacional aims to move away from the relegation zone, while AVS is at the bottom of the table fighting for survival.

近期状态

Nacional's form in their last five matches is LWLWW (3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses). The team has recorded two consecutive wins. AVS, on the other hand, shows a form of DLDDD (0 wins, 4 draws, 1 loss) in their last five games, including three consecutive draws. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.

统计数据

Nacional averaged 1.1 goals scored and 1.32 goals conceded per game this season. At home, they scored 1.11 goals and conceded 1.17 goals per home game. AVS has a weaker record with an average of 0.71 goals scored and 2.1 goals conceded. Away from home, AVS concedes an average of 2.79 goals per game. Both teams scored in 15 of Nacional's games and 13 of AVS's games. Over 2.5 goals were scored in 13 of Nacional's games and 18 of AVS's games.

历史交锋

In 3 head-to-head matches, Nacional has 1 win, AVS has none, and there have been 2 draws. Nacional scored 6 goals and AVS 4 goals in these encounters. The last meeting on December 21, 2025, ended in a 2-2 draw.

关键球员

For Nacional, Jesús Ramírez is the top scorer with 16 season goals and an average rating of 7.2. José Gomes contributes with 5 assists and a rating of 6.81 to defense and buildup play. Paulinho Bóia scored 4 goals and 2 assists with a rating of 6.94. For AVS, Pedro Lima Barros stands out with 3 goals and 2 assists and a rating of 6.77. Diego Ariel Duarte Gárcete scored 3 times, Babatunde Jimoh Akinsola was involved in 1 goal and 2 assists. Not nominated: Liziero (0 goals, 4 assists) for Nacional, Tomané (4 goals, 1 assist) for AVS.

门将

Kaique, Nacional's goalkeeper, made 25 season appearances and contributed to the team's 7 clean sheets. His average rating in the last 5 games rose to 7.51. On the opposing side, Adriel was in goal for AVS 14 times and helped his team to 4 clean sheets. His rating in the last 5 games remained stable at 7.08.

影响因素

Estádio da Madeira has seen an average of 1.6 goals per game in the last 5 matches. In this stadium, both teams scored in 1 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 1 out of 5 games. Nacional shows relative stability at home in Liga Portugal with an average of 1.11 goals scored and 1.17 goals conceded per game. AVS has scored an average of 0.71 goals away and conceded 2.79 goals, indicating significant away weakness.

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