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Liga Portugal

Sporting Braga - Estoril

05/03/2026, 05:00 PM

1 : 1
预期进球
Sporting Braga
1.7
Total xG
2.5
Estoril
0.9
最可能的比分

1:1

13%

2:0

11%

2:1

10%

3:0

6%

3:1

5%
xG 分解
SBEST

Sporting Braga

防守实力 (场均失0.9球 vs 联赛平均1.5球)
-0.56
排名优势 (第4位 vs 第10位, 相差6位)
+0.05
Ricardo Horta未进大名单 (14球, 4助攻)
Víctor Gómez未进大名单 (1球, 3助攻)
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均2球)

Estoril

最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球)
-0.27
状态下滑 (0.8 vs 1.7 赛季平均)
-0.27
排名劣势 (第10位 vs 第4位, 相差6位)
-0.06
客场表现不佳 (场均1.2球 vs 总体1.7球)
全员可用
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

55%

平局

27%

客胜

18%

进球数

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

双重机会

主胜或平局

82%

客胜或平局

45%

非平局

73%

双方进球

49%

51%

关键因素
  • The mathematical analysis indicates a high probability of a home win at 55%
  • Estoril is in a clear crisis of form with 5 consecutive losses
  • Sporting Braga is offensively strong at home with 1.94 goals per game, while Estoril concedes an average of 2.07 goals per away game
风险因素
  • Sporting Braga had a short recovery period with only 3 days since their last match
  • Estoril averaged 2.6 shots on target in their last 5 matches
  • Estoril concedes an average of 2.07 goals per away game
概述

Sporting Braga (4th place, 56 points) host Estoril (10th place, 37 points) at the Estádio Municipal de Braga. Liga Portugal match on May 3, 2026, 6:00 PM. Braga is fighting for international spots, while Estoril is in the mid-table.

近期状态

Sporting Braga shows a current form of WDWLW across all competitions, with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches. The last result was a 2-1 victory against SC Freiburg. Estoril, on the other hand, is in a clear crisis of form with LLLLL, meaning 5 consecutive losses. Estoril lost their last match 0-1 against Famalicão.

统计数据

Sporting Braga has scored an average of 1.9 goals per game this season and conceded 1.0 goals. At home, they average 1.94 goals and concede 0.94 goals per home game. They kept 12 clean sheets. Estoril has scored an average of 1.65 goals per game and conceded 1.68 goals. Away from home, they conceded an average of 2.07 goals per away game. At the Estádio Municipal de Braga, an average of 2.6 goals per game were scored, with both teams scoring in 4 out of 5 matches (BTTS rate 80%) and over 2.5 goals scored in 3 out of 5 matches (Over 2.5 rate 60%).

历史交锋

In the 5 head-to-head matches between the two teams, Sporting Braga secured 3 wins, while Estoril won 1 time, and there was 1 draw. The goal difference is 8:4 in favor of Sporting Braga. The last encounter was won by Estoril away on December 19, 2025, with a score of 1-0. Sporting Braga has been more dominant in recent matchups.

关键球员

For Sporting Braga, Rodrigo Zalazar with 16 goals and 4 assists (season average 7.43), Pau Víctor with 8 goals and 4 assists (season average 6.98), and Mario Dorgeles with 1 goal and a rising form (+0.43 FormTrendDelta) are important attacking forces. Key players like Ricardo Horta (14 goals, 4 assists) and Víctor Gómez (1 goal, 3 assists) are not nominated. For Estoril, Yanis Begraoui stands out with 19 goals and 1 assist (season average 7.06), João Carvalho with 6 goals and 12 assists (season average 7.18), and Jordan Holsgrove with 1 goal and 7 assists (season average 7.17).

门将

Sporting Braga's goalkeeper, Lukas Hornicek, has played in 30 season matches. His counterpart from Estoril, Martin Turk, has made 2 season appearances. Sporting Braga kept 12 clean sheets this season, while Estoril achieved 5 clean sheets.

影响因素

Sporting Braga holds a clear home advantage, scoring an average of 1.94 home goals and conceding only 0.94 goals. Estoril concedes an average of 2.07 goals per away game. The grass surface at Estádio Municipal de Braga provides stable conditions. The last 5 matches at this stadium have seen an average of 2.6 goals per game, with a high probability of both teams scoring.

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