Liga Portugal
Vitória Guimarães - Casa Pia
05/11/2026, 07:15 PM
预期进球
1.6
2.4
0.7
1:0
14%1:1
13%2:0
12%0:0
11%2:1
9%xG 分解
Vitória Guimarães
Casa Pia
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
57%
平局
27%
客胜
16%
进球数
Over 1.5
70%
Under 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
42%
Under 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
22%
Under 3.5
78%
双重机会
主胜或平局
84%
客胜或平局
43%
非平局
73%
双方进球
是
44%
否
56%
关键因素
- Clear Favorite: Mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Vitória Guimarães with 57% probability
- Critical Absences for Casa Pia: Only 34% of usual starting eleven goal threat available, as J. Livolant (3G/8A), Cassiano (6G/0A), and Rafael Brito (2G/1A) are not in the lineup
- Form Trends: Vitória Guimarães in positive form (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss), while Casa Pia remained winless in their last five matches (1 draw, 4 losses)
风险因素
- Casa Pia is defensively vulnerable away from home, conceding an average of 2.38 goals per away game
- Historically even head-to-head record: 3 draws in 5 direct encounters pose a risk for the favorite
- Casa Pia averaged only 2.8 shots on target in their last 5 matches
概述
Vitória Guimarães (7th place, 42 points) host Casa Pia (16th place, 26 points) at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques. The Liga Portugal match takes place on May 11, 2026, 8:15 PM. Vitória Guimarães aims for a mid-table finish, while Casa Pia seeks to distance themselves from the relegation zone.
近期状态
Vitória Guimarães' form across all competitions is WDWWL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss). In their last five matches, they recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss. Casa Pia, on the other hand, shows a form of LDLLL, failing to secure a win in their last five matches, with 1 draw and 4 losses. Vitória Guimarães recently won 2-0 against Rio Ave and 1-0 against Gil Vicente, while Casa Pia lost 0-1 to Tondela and 1-2 to Gil Vicente.
统计数据
Vitória Guimarães has scored an average of 1.22 goals per game this season and conceded 1.5 goals. At home, they are defensively stronger, conceding an average of 0.86 goals. Casa Pia shows weaker offensive performance with 0.91 goals per game and a vulnerable defense, conceding 1.75 goals on average. Away from home, Casa Pia concedes an average of 2.38 goals. Games involving Vitória Guimarães at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques have seen an average of 3.0 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 3 out of 5 matches and over 2.5 goals in 3 out of 5 matches.
历史交锋
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, the record between Vitória Guimarães and Casa Pia is even. Both teams have won 1 match each, with 3 games ending in a draw. The goal difference is 2:3 in favor of Casa Pia. The last encounter on December 28, 2025, ended in a 0-0 draw.
关键球员
For Vitória Guimarães, Samu, with 7 season goals and 3 assists, and Gustavo Silva, with 5 goals and 2 assists, are important offensive players. Samu has 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games, Gustavo Silva has 3 goals and 1 assist, both showing rising form. Gonçalo Nogueira contributed 4 assists this season, including 2 in the last 5 games. For Casa Pia, Gaizka Larrazabal, with 3 goals and 4 assists, and David Sousa, with 2 goals, are defensively important. João Marques scored 1 season goal and 1 goal in the last 5 games.
门将
Charles is the goalkeeper for Vitória Guimarães, having made 17 appearances this season. He shows a rising form with an average rating of 6.99 in the last five games. Charles contributed to 10 clean sheets this season. Patrick Sequeira is Casa Pia's goalkeeper with 27 appearances. His form is stable with an average rating of 6.68 in the last five games. Patrick Sequeira contributed to 6 clean sheets.
影响因素
Vitória Guimarães benefits from home advantage, as they score an average of 1.24 goals at home and concede only 0.86 goals. The Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques has seen an average of 3.0 goals per game in the last 5 matches. Both teams scored in 3 out of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 out of 5 matches.