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Liga Portugal

Estrela Amadora - Famalicão

05/11/2026, 07:15 PM

0 : 0
预期进球
Estrela Amadora
1.0
Total xG
2.1
Famalicão
1.1
最可能的比分

1:1

15%

0:0

14%

0:1

12%

1:0

11%

1:2

7%
xG 分解
EAFAM

Estrela Amadora

最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.6球)
-0.21
状态下滑 (0.6 vs 1.3 赛季平均)
-0.21
排名劣势 (第15位 vs 第5位, 相差10位)
-0.11
全员可用

Famalicão

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.69倍)
-0.25
防守实力 (场均失1球 vs 联赛平均1.2球)
-0.19
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.6球)
+0.06
排名优势 (第5位 vs 第15位, 相差10位)
+0.05
Rodrigo Pinheiro未进大名单 (3球, 2助攻)
Ibrahima Ba未进大名单 (1球, 1助攻)
客场表现不佳 (场均0.9球 vs 总体1.4球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

32%

平局

34%

客胜

35%

进球数

Over 1.5

63%

Under 1.5

37%

Over 2.5

34%

Under 2.5

66%

Over 3.5

16%

Under 3.5

84%

双重机会

主胜或平局

65%

客胜或平局

68%

非平局

66%

双方进球

43%

57%

关键因素
  • Form disparity: Famalicão unbeaten in their last five games, while Estrela Amadora suffered five consecutive losses
  • League position: Famalicão in fifth place, significantly higher than Estrela Amadora in 15th
  • Mathematical analysis: The model predicts a close match with a slight advantage for Famalicão (35% away win, 34% draw)
风险因素
  • Estrela Amadora averaged only 2.8 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • Estrela Amadora is in a clear negative trend with five consecutive losses
  • The mathematical model predicts low goal expectations for both teams, at 1.01 and 1.07 goals respectively
概述

Estrela Amadora (15th place, 28 points) hosts Famalicão (5th place, 52 points) at the Estádio José Gomes. Liga Portugal match on May 11, 2026, 8:15 PM. Estrela Amadora aims to move away from the relegation zone, while Famalicão is fighting for European spots.

近期状态

Estrela Amadora is in a difficult phase with five consecutive losses (LLLLL). The team scored only 3 goals and conceded 9 in their last five matches. Famalicão shows significantly better form and is unbeaten in their last five games (DDDWD), with one win and four draws. During this period, Famalicão scored 8 goals and conceded 7. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Estrela Amadora scores an average of 1.11 goals per home game and concedes 1.26. The team kept 4 clean sheets at home. Famalicão scores an average of 1.25 goals away and concedes 1.42. Famalicão managed to keep 6 clean sheets in away games. At Estádio José Gomes, the last five games averaged 2.8 total goals per match. Both teams scored in 2 of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 of 5 games.

历史交锋

In five direct encounters between the two teams, Estrela Amadora has recorded two wins, Famalicão one, and two games ended in a draw. The goal difference is 4:5 in favor of Famalicão. The last meeting took place on December 27, 2025, where Estrela Amadora emerged victorious with a 3:2 score, winning the last direct duel.

关键球员

For Estrela Amadora, Jovane Cabral (7 goals, 0 assists, stable form), Abraham Marcus (5 goals, 5 assists, declining form), and Rodrigo Pinho (4 goals, 1 assist, declining form) are key. For Famalicão, Gil Dias (4 goals, 7 assists, stable form), Sorriso (5 goals, 4 assists, declining form), and Mathias de Amorim (4 goals, 2 assists, stable form) are important players. For Famalicão, Rodrigo Pinheiro (3 goals, 2 assists) and Ibrahima Ba (1 goal, 1 assist) are not listed in the lineup.

门将

Renan Ribeiro of Estrela Amadora has an average season rating of 6.71 and achieved 7 clean sheets, with his current form being described as declining. Lazar Carević of Famalicão shows an average season rating of 7.01 and achieved 15 clean sheets, but his form is also described as declining.

影响因素

Estrela Amadora scores an average of 1.11 goals at home and concedes 1.26, reflecting the home advantage in offense and defense. Estádio José Gomes averages 2.8 goals per game. In 40% of the last five matches at the stadium, both teams scored, and in 60% there were over 2.5 goals.

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