🇵🇹

Liga Portugal

Nacional - Vitória Guimarães

05/16/2026, 05:00 PM

2 : 0
预期进球
Nacional
1.0
Total xG
2.3
Vitória Guimarães
1.3
最可能的比分

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

0:1

11%

0:2

9%

1:2

8%
xG 分解
NACVG

Nacional

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.75倍)
-0.59
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球)
-0.09
状态下滑 (0.8 vs 1.1 赛季平均)
-0.09
防守不足 (场均失1.4球 vs 联赛平均1.5球)
-0.08
排名劣势 (第14位 vs 第7位, 相差7位)
-0.07
全员可用

Vitória Guimarães

防守实力 (场均失1.6球 vs 联赛平均1.2球)
+0.38
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1球)
-0.08
状态下滑 (1 vs 1.3 赛季平均)
-0.08
排名优势 (第7位 vs 第14位, 相差7位)
+0.04
Noah Jose Saviolo替补席 (2球, 4助攻)
Beni Mukendi替补席 (1球, 1助攻)
Tony Strata替补席 (1球, 1助攻)
João Mendes替补席 (1球, 1助攻)
Diogo Sousa未进大名单 (1球, 1助攻)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

27%

平局

31%

客胜

42%

进球数

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

双重机会

主胜或平局

58%

客胜或平局

73%

非平局

69%

双方进球

47%

53%

关键因素
  • Prediction: The mathematical analysis indicates a higher probability of 42% for an away win
  • League Position: Vitória Guimarães is in 7th place with 42 points, while Nacional is 14th with 31 points
  • Head-to-Head: Vitória Guimarães won 2 of the 3 most recent encounters, Nacional none
风险因素
  • Away Weakness: Vitória Guimarães concedes an average of 2.73 goals per away game
  • Home Form: Nacional has lost its last two home matches
  • Injuries: Nacional is missing I. Mendes Fernandes and U. Rocha due to unknown injuries
概述

Nacional (14th place, 31 points) host Vitória Guimarães (7th place, 42 points) at Estádio da Madeira. The Liga Portugal match is on May 16, 2026, 7:00 PM. Nacional is fighting for crucial points in the relegation battle, while Vitória Guimarães aims to consolidate its mid-table position

近期状态

Nacional is in a difficult spell of form with LWWLL in their last five matches, including two recent losses. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss. Vitória Guimarães shows a similar trend with DWWLL, also with two consecutive losses. Nacional's goal production is currently stagnant (0.8 goals per game) compared to their season average (1.1 goals per game). Vitória Guimarães also recorded stagnant goal production in recent matches (1.0 goals per game) compared to their season average (1.3 goals per game)

统计数据

Nacional scores an average of 1.06 goals and concedes 1.36 goals per game. At home, these values are 1.05 goals scored and 1.15 goals conceded. Vitória Guimarães has a season average of 1.18 goals scored and 1.48 goals conceded per game. Away, these values are 1.18 goals scored and 2.73 goals conceded. Nacional kept 7 clean sheets, Vitória Guimarães 10 times. At Estádio da Madeira, there was an average of 2.0 goals per game in the last five matches. Both teams scored in 2 of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 of 5 matches

历史交锋

In their three recent head-to-head encounters, Vitória Guimarães impressed with two wins and one draw. Nacional failed to win any of these matches. The goal difference of 6:4 favors Vitória Guimarães. The last encounter on January 2, 2026, ended with a 2-1 victory for Vitória Guimarães

关键球员

For Nacional, Jesús Ramírez is the top scorer with 16 season goals and a season average rating of 7.19. Paulinho Bóia contributed 4 goals and 2 assists. José Gomes, a defender, provided 1 goal and 5 assists. For Vitória Guimarães, Samu is crucial with 7 goals and 3 assists, and his form is rising. Gustavo Silva scored 5 goals and assisted 2. Oumar Camara also scored 5 season goals. Not in the squad: Noah Jose Saviolo (2G/4A), Beni Mukendi (1G/1A), Tony Strata (1G/1A), João Mendes (1G/1A), Diogo Sousa (1G/1A)

门将

Nacional's goalkeeper, Kaique, played in 27 matches and achieved an average rating of 6.92. He contributed to 7 clean sheets for his team. Charles is Vitória Guimarães' goalkeeper, playing in 18 matches with an average rating of 6.82. His team achieved 10 clean sheets this season

影响因素

Nacional has a home advantage at Estádio da Madeira, where they score 1.05 goals and concede 1.15 goals. The stadium saw an average of 2.0 goals per game in the last 5 games. 40% of matches ended with both teams scoring, and 40% had over 2.5 goals

准备开始了吗?

创建账户,探索数据驱动的足球分析。随时可取消。