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Liga Portugal

Arouca - Tondela

05/16/2026, 05:00 PM

3 : 1
预期进球
Arouca
1.6
Total xG
2.7
Tondela
1.1
最可能的比分

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

5%
xG 分解
AROTON

Arouca

防守不足 (场均失2球 vs 联赛平均1.5球)
+0.48
排名优势 (第11位 vs 第17位, 相差6位)
+0.05
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.4球)
+0.01
Hyun-ju Lee替补席 (6球, 3助攻)
José Fontán未进大名单 (2球, 3助攻)

Tondela

排名劣势 (第17位 vs 第11位, 相差6位)
-0.07
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1球)
+0.04
进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.72倍)
-0.01
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

47%

平局

28%

客胜

25%

进球数

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

51%

Under 2.5

49%

Over 3.5

29%

Under 3.5

71%

双重机会

主胜或平局

75%

客胜或平局

53%

非平局

72%

双方进球

55%

45%

关键因素
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Arouca with a 47% probability
  • Arouca sits in 11th place, significantly above relegation-threatened Tondela in 17th place in the league table
  • Tondela shows offensive weakness away from home, averaging only 0.76 goals per game
风险因素
  • Tondela concedes an average of 1.82 goals per away game, indicating defensive vulnerabilities
  • Arouca has also shown defensive frailties at home, conceding an average of 1.61 goals per home game
  • The limited head-to-head history of only one match restricts the predictive power of historical data
概述

Arouca (11th place, 39 points) host Tondela (17th place, 28 points) at Estádio Municipal de Arouca

Liga Portugal match on May 16, 2026, 6:00 PM

Arouca seeks to consolidate its mid-table position, while Tondela fights against relegation

近期状态

Arouca's form in the last five games is LWLDW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) with two wins, one draw, and two losses

Arouca won their last game 3-1 away against Gil Vicente

Tondela also has a form of LLDWW in their last five matches, with two wins, one draw, and two losses

Tondela won their last two matches against Moreirense and Casa Pia

统计数据

Arouca averages 1.33 goals scored per game and concedes 1.91 goals

At home, they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.61 goals conceded

Tondela averages 0.79 goals scored per game and concedes 1.58 goals

Away, they average 0.76 goals scored and 1.82 goals conceded

The Estádio Municipal de Arouca sees an average of 3.2 goals per game

Both teams scored in 3 of 5 games, and 4 of 5 games had over 2.5 goals

Arouca consistently scores around 1.4 goals per game, while Tondela is currently scoring more frequently (1.0) than their season average (0.9)

历史交锋

Both teams have only met once before

Arouca won this encounter 3-1 away against Tondela on January 3, 2026

The record shows Arouca as the dominant team in this single head-to-head match

关键球员

For Arouca, Alfonso Trezza with 8 goals and 3 assists, and Iván Barbero with 8 goals and 2 assists are important attackers

Naïs Djouahra contributed 6 goals and 3 assists

For Tondela, Maranhão with 6 goals and 2 assists, and Rony Lopes with 3 goals and 2 assists are the top scorers

Cícero has scored 1 goal and 1 assist

门将

Ignacio de Arruabarrena is Arouca's goalkeeper, with 15 appearances and an average rating of 6.83

Bernardo is Tondela's goalkeeper, with 33 season appearances and an average rating of 6.96

Both teams have kept 7 clean sheets this season

影响因素

The Estádio Municipal de Arouca is known for high-scoring games, averaging 3.2 goals per match

Arouca has scored 24 goals and conceded 29 goals in 18 home games

Tondela has scored 13 goals and conceded 31 goals in 17 away games

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